Russia earned around $10 billion in the first two weeks of the Middle East war—partially reversing months of Western sanctions pressure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed.
“I believe that lifting sanctions [...] will only help Russia.”
“I believe that lifting sanctions on Russia will not help the world; it will only help Russia,” Zelenskyy told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on 15 March, opposing the US sanctions waiver on Russian oil that had gone into effect three days earlier.
From near-collapse to windfall
Before the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, Russia’s finances were under more pressure than at any point since the invasion began.
Euromaidan Press reported in February that the 2025 deficit hit 5.65 trillion rubles ($72 billion)—the highest since 2009—as Urals crude slid to $36–38 per barrel by January 2026, well below the $59 Moscow needed to fund its war budget without tapping emergency reserves.
The penalty that sanctions had built into every Russian barrel had vanished—and then reversed.
Then the Strait of Hormuz closed. In February, Indian refiners—Russia’s largest crude buyers—could get Russian oil for $28 less per barrel than the standard global price. By mid-March, that same oil cost $4–5 more per barrel than the global price. The penalty that sanctions had built into every Russian barrel had vanished—and then reversed.
$150 million more, every day
RBC-Ukraine reported that the Hormuz disruption is delivering up to $150 million in additional daily revenue to Russia’s federal budget.
In the first 12 days of the conflict, Russia collected an additional $1.3–1.9 billion.
In the first 12 days of the conflict, Russia collected an additional $1.3–1.9 billion; Financial Times calculations put the cumulative total at up to $5 billion by the end of March. India’s Russian crude imports rose 50% and China’s by 22% as buyers scrambled for Gulf alternatives.
The architecture that almost held
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Western governments had built that pressure deliberately. The EU’s floating price cap, activated in February, sets its ceiling at 15% below the Urals’ 22-week average, closing the loophole that allowed Russia to benefit from market rebounds under the original static $60 cap.
Donald Trump told NBC News that sanctions would return “as soon as” the crisis ends—with no timeline attached.
Ukrainian drone strikes damaged refineries throughout 2025. US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil isolated Moscow from buyers that accounted for over 85% of its crude exports.
Then Washington stepped back. On 12 March, the US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver permitting purchases of Russian crude already at sea. Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU Commissioner, warned it could deliver unexpected revenues to Moscow.
On 15 March, Donald Trump told NBC News that sanctions would return “as soon as” the crisis ends—with no timeline attached.
The price of doing nothing
The windfall matters because it widens the gap between what the war costs Russia and what settling it might cost. Analysts who spoke to Euromaidan Press in February concluded Russia had not yet reached the point where continued fighting costs more than a settlement.
The windfall has pushed that threshold further away—and the US waiver has pushed it further still.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine would continue striking Russian energy infrastructure.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine would continue striking Russian energy infrastructure, and that he was in talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and others “about halting and confiscating Russian oil.” On the war itself, he was blunt: the Russians “certainly have no intention of stopping the war”—while insisting Russia’s spring offensive had “already failed.”
