Exclusives
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What does a Russian air raid alarm cost Ukraine's economy? Researchers just found out. The missiles get the headlines. The sirens do the quiet damage. Now there's data to prove it. |
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Russia's winter campaign was supposed to freeze Ukraine, split its grid, and stop its factories. None of it worked, ISW says. With the campaign now over, Russia is preparing strikes on Ukraine's water supply — a shift ISW calls an implicit acknowledgement of failure, while warning that lessons from the energy campaign could be applied to water infrastructure, which shares similar Soviet-era vulnerabilities. |
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Russia cut small business support by a third — then sent the tax collector. The Kremlin chose to abandon its civilian economy. Now the VAT bill arrives. |
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Washington walked into a quagmire in Iran. That's bad news for Ukraine.. The same strategic amateurism that plagues Ukraine policy just produced an undefined war with Iran. |
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EU banned Russian gas by 2027. The Iran war may undo it, Norway warns. European gas prices hit multi-year highs as Gulf disruptions shake energy markets. |
Military
Russia claims Ukrainian drones attacked its gas tanker in the Mediterranean Sea. A Russian LNG tanker under EU, US, and UK sanctions sank in the central Mediterranean on March 3 after explosions and a fire. Russia's Transport Ministry says Ukrainian unmanned boats attacked it from the Libyan coast. Ukraine has not responded.
ISW: Russia's command missed every deadline since Kyiv in 2022, now wants Odesa — Ukraine meanwhile gained 90 km² in two weeks. Ukrainian forces liberated more ground than they lost in the last two weeks of February — disrupting, ISW assesses, Russia's entire timetable for a planned Spring-Summer 2026 offensive before it could get off the ground.
Russia's regime feeds on war and doesn't want peace, Russian commander fighting for Kyiv says. The Russians are already discussing the capture of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, Kapustin added.
Intelligence and technology
Ukraine's $880M Drone Line has turned Russian movement on frontline into death sentence in just 12 months. Ukraine launched the Drone Line a year ago with $880 million in funding. The result: 1,000 crews on the front, 30,000 Russian soldiers killed in one winter.
Ukraine offers drone defense expertise to Middle East after years of fighting Iranian drones in Russia's war. Iran has launched 800 missiles and 1,400 drones already.
US is hitting Iran's drone factories the way Ukraine wanted to hit Russia's, ISW says. The United States is hitting Iranian drone and missile facilities in a joint campaign with Israel — the same category of target Ukraine has sought to strike in Russia with US-supplied Tomahawk cruise missiles, a request Washington denied in Fall 2025, the Institute for the Study of War reports.
International
Eight European nations invited into France's nuclear orbit — Warsaw says it wants more than observer status. Poland is formally consulting with France on joining an "advanced nuclear deterrence system," Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed on 6 Feb. — and said Warsaw is already thinking past participation toward building its own independent nuclear capability.
Merz brought Ukraine front-line map to Oval Office, defended Starmer and Spain behind closed doors after Trump's criticism. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived at the Oval Office on Tuesday with a map of Ukraine's front lines and left saying President Donald Trump now had a clearer picture of why territorial concessions were not an option — though Trump's public comments gave little sign of it.
Tehran vows to strike European countries if they join Iran war. "It would be an act of war," Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on 3 Feb. — a direct warning to European governments that had pledged to defend Cyprus after Iranian drone strike on RAF Akrotiri.
Humanitarian and social impact
Russia struck two trains within 24 hours — and Ukrzaliznytsia says rolling stock is now a primary target. A Russian drone hit a train in Mykolaiv, while a second drone narrowly missed a passenger locomotive on the Dnipro–Kovel route — part of a campaign averaging six railway strikes per day since the start of March.
Russia is funneling Ukraine's war veterans into Paralympic sport — and IPC is letting them compete. Russia calls them "Heroes of Our Time". Ukraine calls them war criminals. The IPC calls them athletes.
Boycott goes global: Ukraine urges world to shun Paralympic parade, as Russia allowed to ceremony despite 190K war crimes. Lithuania, Poland, Canada, UK and others signal protest stance as Paralympic controversy escalates.
Political and legal developments
This love couple pretended to live low-key life, but they actually received burner phone dropped by Russian UAV. They did everything together. He cheered for occupation online, she scouted positions.
New developments
Putin is collecting gifts from Iran's war he didn't even ask for: huge oil check and permission to kill. The US went to war against Iran to neutralize a threat. For Putin, it's a gift basket.
"It's funny that you could be killed by your own drone!" Rich Russians in Dubai surprised to discover Geran-2 UAV used to hit Ukraine. A Geran-2 drone, the same one Russia fires at Ukraine, just crashed near their resort.
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