Ukraine and SpaceX's efforts to block unauthorized Starlink terminals in Ukraine is already disrupting Russia's elite Rubikon Center drone unit, confirming earlier forecasts that the move would degrade Russian deep-strike capabilities, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). A Ukrainian drone brigade commander told BBC Ukrainian Service that Russian forces will likely need about six months to find an alternative to Starlink.
Rubikon goes quiet on strike locations
Russia's Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies had been using Starlink terminals to extend the range of its drones and strike targets deep behind Ukraine's front lines. The unit regularly published footage on its Telegram channel, tagging specific frontline and rear settlements hit by its strikes. That changed abruptly after 4 February after SpaceX blocked unregistered Starlink terminals in Ukraine on 1 February, ISW says.
Since then, Rubikon has continued posting about strikes across the front line but dropped all specific location details, "suggesting that SpaceX’s decision to restrict Russian forces’ access to Starlink on February 1 has been negatively impacting Rubikon’s strike campaign," according to ISW.
Six months to find a workaround
The commander of a Ukrainian unmanned systems brigade told BBC Ukrainian Service that Russian forces will likely spend about six months searching for an alternative to Starlink. Russian forces, particularly Rubikon, relied on Starlink terminals to extend drone range and generate effects of battlefield air interdiction — striking further into the Ukrainian rear well behind the contact line.
Ukraine's drone forces face a different constraint
While Russia's Rubikon Center focused exclusively on strikes against Ukrainian logistics and the operational rear, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) face a more complex mission. The Ukrainian commander noted that the SBS cannot dedicate itself solely to rear-area attacks. It must also spend time and resources helping Ukrainian infantry hold the front line and repel Russian ground assaults.
On 5 February, when the Starlink ban became widely known and Russian sources started to report how disruptive it is for their military, ISW assessed that "Ukraine’s efforts to shut down Russian forces’ access to Starlink terminals would likely impact Russian BAI (battlefield air interdiction, — Ed.) efforts, preventing Russian forces from conducting these strikes at the same tempo and depth as in prior weeks."
