Russia is preparing another massive strike on Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says. Moscow is planning to hit Ukraine right during the so-called “peace talks” between Kyiv and Moscow in Geneva.
This indicates that Russia wants to continue negotiations while simultaneously continuing to kill civilians and destroy heating facilities during one of the coldest winters of the past decade.
Moscow's strikes on Ukraine during the “peace talks” demonstrate a tactic of coercion through pressure.
Strike on the capital: tool of pressure during negotiations
According to the monitoring channel YeRadar, analysis of satellite imagery shows that Russia has redeployed three combat Tu-95MS bombers from the Ukrainka air base, which are regularly involved in launching cruise missiles. They can carry 24 missiles.
“A key feature of the attack may be that strikes will be carried out against Kyiv Oblast, including the city of Kyiv, and western Ukraine — simultaneously,” analysts say.
To strike the capital and Kyiv Oblast, a moderate number of attack UAVs and ballistic/cruise missiles of the Iskander complex may be used.
For strikes against targets in western Ukraine, missiles from strategic aviation platforms and a large number of attack UAVs are expected.
This poses a direct threat to civilian survival in winter, as disabling power generation and substations results in cold, water shortages, and no heating for millions of people.
The use of Kalibr, Kinzhal, and Zircon missiles is also possible.
Main target of the strikes: pressure on civilians and terror
Zelenskyy said he had instructed the Commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Anatolii Kryvonozhko, Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, and the head of the national grid operator Ukrenergo to “prepare the necessary additional protective measures during the day, taking into account intelligence information about Russia preparing a massive strike.”
On 15 February, Zelenskyy reported that over the past week, Russian forces had launched around 1,300 attack UAVs, more than 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and 50 missiles at Ukraine, almost all of them ballistic.
The president stressed that, as before, the main target of these strikes is Ukraine’s energy sector.
On the night of 16 February, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with four Zircon anti-ship missiles, an Iskander-M ballistic missile, a Kh-31P guided aviation missile, as well as 62 attack UAVs of the Shahed, Gerbera, and Italmas types and other drones.
The US has not commented on Ukrainian statements regarding strikes on civilians. No new sanctions have been introduced. The current administration is also maintaining a policy of not approving new military aid packages for Kyiv.
Ukraine is receiving US-made Patriot missiles exclusively through a European-funded procurement program.
