Russia can launch up to 30 ballistic missiles against Ukraine in single salvo. Here’s why that changes everything for 2026

Russian ballistic missiles, capable of being launched in salvos of up to 30 at a time, could become one of Ukraine’s key challenges in 2026, according to defense expert Oleksandr Kovalenko. These missiles represent a distinct category of threats, Glavred reports. 

The missile is intercepted, but the danger remains

Even when interception is successful, the danger to civilians does not disappear. Debris from ballistic missiles poses a serious risk, especially in densely built urban areas.

In January 2026, Russian forces used a record number of ballistic missiles, which is 91 in a single month, confirming a clear trend toward expanding this category of weapons.

Four per day: Russia ramped up Iskander production

According to Kovalenko, Russia is currently capable of producing at least two ballistic missiles per day for the Iskander-M tactical missile system (9M723).

“I emphasize—at least. They can produce three or even four such missiles per day,” the expert notes.

In recent years, Russia has scaled up ballistic missile production even more actively than cruise missiles such as the Kh-101, betting on ballistics as a primary tool of pressure.

Smuggling instead of factories

A key factor in production is not only industrial capacity, but also access to components.

“Microchips and semiconductors are smuggled in through third countries, including China,” Kovalenko says.

If the flow of components is stable, production increases. If delays occur, output slows but does not stop completely. This is why Russia currently produces more ballistic missiles than Kh-101 and 3M-14 missiles.

500 km of danger: nearly half country under threat

The greatest risk applies to regions within a 500-kilometer strike radius of ballistic missiles. This includes:
almost all of eastern Ukraine, the south, parts of the north, including Kyiv.

Ballistic missiles do not require air or naval launch platforms—precisely the area where Russia is increasingly facing problems.

Why are Kh-101 and Kalibr fading into the background? 

Previously, Russia’s primary strike weapons were Kh-101 cruise missiles and 3M-14 Kalibr missiles. Today, their use has declined sharply.

The reason is the destruction and damage of launch platforms. A significant portion of Tu-95 and Tu-160 aircraft were hit during Operation “Web.”

A similar situation applies to naval Kalibr carriers:

• many ships have been destroyed or damaged;
• most launch systems have exhausted their service life.

“To repair them, ships would have to be taken out of the Black Sea all the way to the Baltic,” Kovalenko explains.

Hunting launchers: the only real response to ballistic terror

In addition to active air defense, Ukraine has one more option, which is the targeted destruction of launch platforms inside Russia.

However, this is an extremely difficult task. Launchers are:

• mobile;
• well-camouflaged;
• hard to detect, track, and engage.

“They are difficult to hunt down, identify, track, and destroy. But if we are talking about real countermeasures, there is no alternative,” the expert stresses.

When Russia uses ballistic missiles against cities, even so-called “precision” strikes inevitably affect civilian targets.

A 500-kilogram high-explosive or cluster warhead has devastating power and cannot produce a truly pinpoint effect. A strike on a “target” always means civilian casualties nearby.