Planners expect US forces to overrun the country in days
Canada's military has created plans for a hypothetical American invasion, envisioning insurgency tactics similar to those used against Soviet and US forces in Afghanistan, The Globe and Mail reported on 20 January.
The scenario planning follows President Donald Trump's 3 January military strike on Venezuela, which captured President Nicolás Maduro in an operation critics compared to Russia's playbook.
Trump has since escalated pressure on Greenland and repeatedly mused about making Canada the "51st state," with former strategist Steve Bannon calling Canada "hostile" to the United States.
What Canadian defense planners expect
Two senior government officials told The Globe and Mail that military planners expect American forces to overrun Canada's strategic positions within two days to a week. Without sophisticated equipment or sufficient personnel for conventional defense, Canada would resort to unconventional warfare: ambushes, sabotage, drone strikes, and hit-and-run tactics.
One official said the model includes tactics used by Afghan mujahideen against Soviet troops in the 1979-1989 war—the same tactics that killed 158 Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014, many through improvised explosive devices.
Retired Major-General David Fraser, who commanded Canadian troops in Afghanistan alongside Americans, said Canada could also employ drones and tank-killing weapons "like the Ukrainians used against the Russians to blunt their invasion in February 2022."
"You do not walk across that border because everybody is your enemy then," Fraser said.
The Ukraine parallel
The scenario carries eerie echoes of the prelude to Russia's full-scale invasion. Just weeks before 24 February 2022, Ukraine launched its territorial defense system, rapidly enrolling 10,000-15,000 volunteers toward a goal of 130,000 trained fighters.
Then-Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov warned: "The enemy will know that he has no advantage of a sudden invasion. That in case of crossing the border, the earth will literally burn underfoot."
Canada's Chief of Defence Staff General Jennie Carignan has announced plans to create a 400,000-strong reserve force—taking inspiration from Finland, which maintains 900,000 reservists.
Officials told The Globe and Mail this volunteer force "could be armed or asked to provide disruptions if the US becomes an occupying power."
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Invasion warning signs and Canada's nuclear allies
Canadian planners estimate they would have a maximum of three months to prepare once invasion orders are issued. The first warning would come when the US signals that Canada "no longer has a shared skies policy" with Washington.
At that point, Canada would likely call on France or Britain—states with nuclear weapons—to provide defense support against the US.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has already warned that any US military action against NATO territory would mean "everything stops, including NATO."
"If you come after Canada, you are going to have the world coming after you, even more than Greenland," Fraser said. "You could actually see German ships and British planes in Canada to reinforce the country's sovereignty."
Canada's preparation reveals how thoroughly Trump's actions have shattered assumptions about North American security. A founding NATO member is now gaming out resistance to its closest ally—echoing preparations Ukraine once made against its own neighbor.
