“US security guarantees became awkward”: Greenland dispute is eroding international law’s deterrent function for Ukraine

The "Greenland case" casts doubt on the very framework of a future peace settlement between Ukraine and Russia. Tensions between the US and the EU are already diverting Western attention from deterring Moscow's aggression, says political scientist Maksym Yali, according to Focus. 

As a result, instead of consolidating the West around deterring Russia, a new center of tension is emerging, this time among allies.

When allies' sovereignty becomes a bargaining chip

“Europe believed that Russia was the main threat to its security and that, by financially supporting Ukraine, it would gain two to three years to ... prepare for possible aggression against EU countries,” Yali notes.

However, the "new geopolitical reality named Trump" chose a different course. In essence, this involves a demand that Denmark transfer part of its sovereign territory under the guise of an economic deal, he says. 

Moreover, the US president has publicly stated that if diplomacy fails, he is prepared to resort to “tougher” methods.

According to the analyst, this precedent is dangerous not only for Europe but for the entire system of international relations. If territorial claims by major powers become normalized, international law will effectively lose its deterrent function.

Implications for Ukraine: erosion of international law

For Ukraine, this situation carries several negative consequences.

• First, it becomes increasingly difficult to appeal to Russia’s violations of international law, as faith in its effectiveness has nearly evaporated. Accordingly, prospects for reparations are becoming increasingly uncertain.
• Second, EU attention and financial resources will increasingly be directed toward managing a new trade confrontation with the US. In this context, Ukraine, particularly the issue of possible backchannel talks between Washington and Moscow, risks being pushed to the sidelines.

“Let us hope everything ends peacefully and quickly. But it is becoming obvious that Trump has developed a taste for swift and decisive ‘special operations,’” the expert notes.

This suggests that the “Greenland story” may be only the beginning. Much will depend on the outcome of negotiations between the US and the EU.

“Mentioning US security guarantees to NATO countries has somehow become awkward,” Yali concludes.

If the US itself questions an ally’s sovereignty, trust in American security guarantees in Europe will inevitably weaken. Under such conditions, security will depend less on treaties and more on the capacity for self-defense.