Russia launched a combined strike on Ukraine's capital and western regions overnight into 9 January, hours after the US Embassy in Kyiv issued an unusual warning about "a potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next several days."
The attack on Kyiv killed four people and wounded 25, disrupting water and electricity supply. Lviv Oblast was struck by Russia's Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, Ukrainian officials reported.
The timing raises questions about what US intelligence services knew in advance.
What Washington may have known
The Embassy's warning on 8 January urged Americans to "identify shelter locations" and "download a reliable air alert app"—unusually specific guidance that preceded Russia's largest combined assault on Ukraine in weeks.
Unlike routine security updates, it cited information about a specific threat "over the next several days" rather than general elevated risk.
Within 24 hours, Russia launched Oreshnik—a weapon Putin has personally used as a psychological pressure tool—alongside waves of drones and missiles at Kyiv.
Whether US intelligence detected preparations for the Oreshnik launch specifically, or broader staging activity that could have targeted either Kyiv or western Ukraine, remains unclear.
The missile's trajectory to Lviv Oblast rather than the capital could suggest either a late target change or that intelligence indicated multiple potential strike zones.
Attack on Kyiv leaves capital reeling
Kyiv bore the brunt of the overnight assault. Russian forces hit the capital with 36 missiles and 242 drones in one of the largest combined attacks on the city in months, Radio Svoboda reported.
Weapons used in the attack
- 13 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
- 22 Kalibr cruise missiles
- Around 150 Shahed drones
Casualties and damage
The attack killed four people, wounded 25, and disrupted water and electricity supply to parts of the city.
Among the dead was a medic who arrived to help wounded at an initial impact site—only for Russian forces to strike the same location again.
Moscow's possible motivations
The assault came during a week when Moscow faced unusual pressure on multiple fronts. US special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on 3 January, toppling Russia's key Latin American ally.
Four days later, the US Coast Guard seized the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera in the North Atlantic—a vessel that had hastily adopted Russian registration mid-chase in a failed bid to escape American law enforcement.
Washington's aggressive posture toward Russia's allies and the shadow fleet that funds Moscow's war may have prompted Kremlin frustration. When Russia cannot strike at those challenging it elsewhere, Ukraine absorbs the response. The pattern has repeated throughout the war: diplomatic setbacks or economic pressure trigger intensified attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
What comes next
The US Embassy warning specified threats over "the next several days"—suggesting Washington expects additional strikes. Ukrainian officials urged residents to maintain vigilance and keep shelter locations identified.
Whether the Oreshnik's deployment represents an escalatory shift or a one-off demonstration remains to be seen. Russia has limited stockpiles of the weapon and typically reserves it for moments requiring psychological impact rather than tactical effect.
The simultaneous strikes on opposite ends of Ukraine, combined with the deployment of Russia's most feared missile, suggest Moscow designed the operation for maximum terror effect. The scale and coordination of the assault aligns with exactly the kind of threat the Embassy's unusual alert had anticipated.
