Russia aims not only to seize Donbas. The West is systematically underestimating both the scale of the Kremlin’s ambitions and the level of internal support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, says Peter Eltsov, Professor of International Security at the US National Defense University, Channel 24 reports.
In his New Year's address to the nation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that there are only two choices: either the world stops Russia’s aggression, or Russia drags the world into its war. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made a similar warning during a speech in Berlin, stating that the Alliance could become Russia’s next target and that Europe is already at risk.
The expert explained that Russia’s war against Ukraine is a comprehensive imperial project, not a struggle over individual regions. Moscow wants to establish control over significantly larger parts of Ukraine, not just the two eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
"A ceasefire without major cities is useless to Putin"
According to Eltsov, it is highly unlikely that Putin would agree to a ceasefire without capturing at least one major Ukrainian city.
“If the Kremlin does agree to a ceasefire, it will only be a pause to prepare new attacks six months or a year later. Even Russian propagandists, such as Sergey Karaganov, openly say this,” Eltsov noted.
He stressed that conceding Donbas would not stop Moscow. Putin’s inner circle views control over all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro River as a strategic objective.
Absurd “elections” and attempts to legitimize the war
Eltsov also drew attention to Putin’s recent statement suggesting that Ukrainians living in Russia could participate in Ukraine’s presidential elections.
Putin claimed this involved 5–10 million people, which Eltsov described as entirely unacceptable during wartime.
Since these individuals reside in Russia, they are likely exposed to Russian propaganda, making the idea politically toxic and overtly manipulative.
Can Russia be an empire without Ukraine?
Eltsov recalled a widely cited Western observation made after the annexation of Crimea.
“Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a European country and becomes purely an Asian empire," he said.
While the Kremlin does not seek integration with Europe, losing Ukraine carries enormous symbolic weight. Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities are viewed in Moscow as part of the so-called "historical Russia".
At the same time, Russia shows little interest in expanding into Central Asia or Azerbaijan, where religious factors and fears of a growing Muslim population play a decisive role.
According to Eltsov, the Kremlin’s campaign against Ukraine also has a racist undertone, a desire to increase the “white population” to compensate for Russia’s demographic crisis.
This represents an attempt to simultaneously solve demographic decline, restore the empire, and prevent its collapse. As Eltsov concluded, these views are expressed quite openly within Russia itself.
