The Kremlin exaggerates its battlefield successes to create an illusion of Ukraine's defense collapse. The goal is to influence US President Donald Trump and his peace initiatives, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Right before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy headed to the US for talks with Trump, Russia held a meeting with its General Staff leadership on 27 December.
During the meeting, General Valery Gerasimov and Russian military commanders made a series of hyperbolic claims about Russian successes, including the alleged complete capture of certain cities in Donetsk and Huliaipole settlement in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, this information was not true.
Real pace of Russian troops' advance: years and years
ISW estimates that in 2025, Russian troops advanced an average of 14.4 square kilometers per day. This means that capturing Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts at the same pace would take about 1,190 days, until 1 April 2029.
Analysts emphasize that this calculation does not account for crossings over the Dnipro River, water obstacles, or large cities like Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Putin exaggerates ease of capturing “fortress belt” in Donetsk
According to ISW, the Kremlin continues to portray the capture of Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, four fortified cities, as a quick and easy task.
The Ukrainian defensive belt is significantly larger and more densely populated than any of the captured cities, the ISW analysts add.
