A battle for Sloviansk will begin next year, says Mykola Melnyk, a veteran of the Russia–Ukraine war, senior lieutenant, and expert with the Leviathan analytical group. He adds that this battle is inevitable, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Donbas Realities project reports.
Together with Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk, Sloviansk forms what is often described as the “Donbas fortification belt." A breakthrough here would allow Russian forces to outflank Ukrainian defenses and threaten control over the entire Donetsk Oblast.
According to Melnyk, the battle for Kramatorsk is already effectively underway, and further developments will depend on the lessons Ukraine draws from the war in 2025 and how it conducts combat operations in 2026.
“These are inevitable things. There will be a battle for Sloviansk, and the battle for Kramatorsk is already beginning,” Melnyk stressed.
At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated unequivocally that Ukraine will not recognize Donbas as Russian, neither de jure nor de facto.
Donbas stronghold: why Sloviansk matters
Sloviansk holds both symbolic and strategic importance.
In 2014, the city was seized by Russian-backed forces but liberated by Ukrainian troops several months later. Since then, it has been repeatedly attacked while continuing to serve as a rear and logistics hub.
The battle for Sloviansk hinges on the developments on the Pokrovsk front. Currently, the Russians have already occupied 80% of the city and have almost encircled Myrnohrad, its twin city.
Russian tactics: logistical encirclement instead of frontal assault
Melnyk notes that Russia is following a familiar pattern previously used near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad—avoiding direct assaults in favor of destroying logistics.
“When the Russians realized it was difficult to enter the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration due to the high ground, they brought logistics routes under fire control. First comes logistical encirclement, then the actual one,” he explained.
According to Melnyk, the same approach is being applied near Siversk and will likely be used against Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
At the same time, he emphasizes that these cities can and must be held for a long time, but only through a comprehensive approach. It must include fortifications, effective mobilization, defense-industrial capacity, and the analysis and correction of command-level mistakes.
“It’s not enough to say that three brigades will stand there. This requires a full set of measures, not declarations,” Melnyk concluded.
