- Russian air defenses were pretty shoddy early in the wider war
- They've improved since then, one think tank concluded
- Concentrating radars, missiles and guns around certain key targets, the Russians can shoot down the cast majority of Ukraine's deep-strike drones
- Russia can't defend everywhere, but it can prioritize its defense in order to blunt the impact of Ukrainian drone raids—and preserve the Russian economy
Russian air defenses struggled early in Russia's wider war on Ukraine. Nearly four years later, Russia's air-defenders have adopted better tactics and newer equipment—and have now become a major obstacle for Ukraine's deep-strike campaign.
That's one main takeaway from a new report from the Royal United Services Institute in London. "Russia produces some of the most formidable air defense systems in the world and fields them in large numbers," the RUSI team, including analyst Jack Watling, wrote.
"These pose a threat to NATO air forces and to conventional deterrence in Europe," the RUSI team added. "They also intercept most Ukrainian munitions targeting Russia’s infrastructure and industry and therefore contribute to securing the revenue generation that underpins Russia’s aggression against Ukraine."
Russia's air defense improved since 2022
Russia's thousands of fixed surface-to-air missile batteries and mobile guns and launchers weren't always so fearsome. When Russian regiments rolled deeper into Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Russian commanders feared their overeager, inexperienced air defenders would shoot down Russian planes, drones, and missiles.
"In the first few days of the war, Russian air defenders were under orders to treat all aircraft and other aerial vehicles as friendly," the RUSI analysts wrote. "The result was embarrassing, as Ukrainian UAVs and aircraft struck Russian columns. Russian air defenses quickly transitioned to protecting key nodes, and losses of Ukrainian aircraft increased immediately."
The threat endures, even as the Russian armed forces have lost hundreds of air defense radars, launchers, and vehicles. Steady losses to Russian missiles have badly depleted Ukrainian air force brigades—in particular, the units flying irreplaceable Sukhoi Su-27 interceptors.
Ukraine has trouble striking protected objects
The Russians have been less successful countering Ukraine's one-way strike drones, which routinely target oil refineries, factories, and other strategic facilities as deep as 1,600 km inside Russia. But the same geographic factors that complicate Russian air defense efforts in Russia also limit the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes.
"Russia has continued to take hits around oil refineries, military-industrial sites, and logistics hubs as Ukraine has scaled the production of a wide range of long-range strike systems," the RUSI team explained. "The regular images of fires in Russia have caused a perception that Russian air defenses are failing to protect the territory."
"The reality is more complex," the analysts stressed. "There are a lot of targets in Russia, and they are
geographically dispersed, meaning that they cannot all be defended. Ukraine has, over time, become quite adept at attacking targets that lack air defense and has prioritized targets where flammable or sensitive materials will allow small numbers of munitions with limited payloads to cause cascading damage to a facility."
But there are many other, better-defended targets.
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"When Ukraine has attacked more protected targets, the results have been consistent. Out of a salvo of 100–150 UAVs, costing between $20,000 and $80,000 each, around 10 will get to their target, where their small payload often causes negligible damage that can quickly be repaired."
A Ukrainian drones' explosive payload is often small relative to its overall mass because, in order to range deep inside Russia, it needs to carry as much fuel as possible.
The big picture is a bleak one for Ukraine's deep-strike campaign, RUSI concluded.
Costly attacks, limited effect
The overall success rate of Ukrainian strikes has been that less than 10% of munitions have reached a target, and fewer still have delivered an effect. Successful strikes on hardened targets have often required Ukraine to fire over 100 UAVs on one attack vector to exhaust the air defenses in a sector, and only then fire cruise missiles or larger UAVs to deliver damage.
Even where Storm Shadow or other prestige weapons are used by Ukraine, the improvements in Russian munitions matching have meant that they often intercept over 50% of these munitions, even when they are part of a complex salvo.
Russia’s air defenses, therefore, have absorbed many resources from Ukraine and have made large numbers of high-value targets unreachable.
On several occasions, Ukraine has lined up complex attacks and gamed the air defense system to get munitions on target. Such techniques are rarely repeatable.
