ISW: Trump’s reported peace plan is “fundamentally the same as Russia’s 2022 Istanbul demands”

A reported 28-point peace plan allegedly drafted by US and Russian officials would force Ukraine into unilateral concessions that mirror Russia’s 2022 demands in Istanbul, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The think tank states that the plan includes Ukraine withdrawing from critical territory in Donetsk Oblast and freezing the frontline in the south — steps that would disproportionately favor Russia.

Proposed peace plan seen as strategic victory for Russia

The Institute for the Study of War reported that the draft proposal would amount to "Ukraine’s full capitulation." The plan would hand Russia strategic land and positions without any clear reciprocal concessions from Moscow. ISW stated the proposal is “fundamentally the same” as Russia’s 2022 demands during talks in Istanbul.

"The reported proposed peace plan would deprive Ukraine of critical defensive positions and capabilities necessary to defend against future Russian aggression, apparently in exchange for nothing," ISW wrote.

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The plan includes Ukraine’s withdrawal from the rest of Donetsk Oblast, a move ISW assesses would disproportionately favor Russia. The oblast contains vital Ukrainian military and logistical infrastructure, including the long-standing Fortress Belt defensive line established in 2014. For over a decade, Russia has tried and failed to take this area by force. 

"The reported peace plan would give this significant land to Russia — apparently for no specified compromise — sparing Russia the time, effort, and manpower that it could use elsewhere in Ukraine during renewed aggression," ISW says.

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Ceding Donetsk would open the door to more Russian offensives

The think tank notes that the Kremlin has repeatedly said that any withdrawal from Donbas would be a precondition for peace talks — not a result.

ISW further warned that Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk would give Russian troops better positions to advance into other key oblasts. In particular, they could push deeper into southern Kharkiv Oblast, eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and even into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces might also attempt to cross the Oskil River and later threaten Kharkiv City from several directions.

Meanwhile, freezing the frontline in southern Ukraine would provide Russian troops with the opportunity to rest and rebuild, ISW noted. This would set the stage for renewed attacks against cities like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which remain among the Kremlin’s stated objectives.

"Russia would therefore have its choice of multiple, mutually supportive offensive operations to undertake should Ukraine cede Donetsk Oblast to Russia and agree to freeze the frontline in southern Ukraine, especially if there is no meaningful security guarantee mechanisms to prevent future Russian aggression and if Ukraine concedes to Russia’s demand of reduced military size and capacity," ISW concluded.