- The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate recently targeted Russia's best drone group
- The Russian Rubicon group gained fame, or infamy, when it cut off the Ukrainian troops fighting in western Russia's Kursk Oblast back in February
- Today, Rubicon is repeating its strategy around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in eastern Ukraine: cutting off Ukrainian supply lines
- The Ukrainian drone raid occurred too late to defeat Rubicon ... or save Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad
Russia's elite Rubicon (also spelled Rubikon) drone group is strangling the Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad. So the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, the HUR, is trying to strangle Rubicon—by striking at its operators in one of their rear bases.
But the Ukrainian effort is too little, too late.
A recent HUR drone raid on an alleged Rubicon base near Avdiivka, 40 km southeast of Pokrovsk, is a desperate effort to delay the likely inevitable outcome of the yearlong Russian siege of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast.
Potentially thousands of Ukrainians are still fighting in and just south of the settlements, but they're nearly cut off by a Russian force that outnumbers them five to one. The Russian armed forces "have intensified efforts to encircle the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration," the Conflict Intelligence Team noted.
"Currently, only about 3 km remain between the converging segments of the contested area north of Pokrovsk and southwest of Krasnyi Lyman—a narrow corridor through which Ukrainian troops could potentially exit the operational encirclement," CIT warned.
Rubicon's stranglehold on Pokrovsk supply routes
Disrupting one Russian drone group might buy the Ukrainians more time to escape Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. But it's unlikely to save the settlements.
The HUR launched its attack drones at the Rubicon base under the cover of darkness on or before Tuesday. Footage from the long-range, first-person-view drones shows at least one of them slamming into a two-story building the HUR claimed housed Rubicon operators.
It's unclear how much damage the raid inflicted. And it probably doesn't matter very much. The real damage along the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis is being inflicted by Rubicon teams flying short-range first-person-view drones whose operators are on the front line ... not behind it near Avdiivka.
Key facts about the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad encirclement:
- Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian defenders 5 to 1
- Only 3 km corridor remains for Ukrainian withdrawal
- Converging fronts north of Pokrovsk and southwest of Krasnyi Lyman threaten complete encirclement
- Two main supply routes now under direct FPV drone surveillance
- Russia has concentrated nearly 170,000 troops on the Pokrovsk front
How Rubicon perfected supply-line warfare in Kursk
Rubicon is among the best Russian drone groups. It made its major combat debut in February when it deployed its FPV teams north of the Ukrainian-held salient around the town of Sudzha in western Russia's Kursk Oblast. The drones swiftly destroyed hundreds of Ukrainian trucks, cutting off the flow of supplies into Sudzha and compelling the Ukrainian troops to retreat.
The elite unit was created in mid-2024 under orders from Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, combining drone development, operator training, and electronic warfare capabilities. It operates at least seven detachments of 130-150 personnel each, with projections to reach 5,000-6,000 specialists by fall 2025.
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The Kremlin's attention then shifted south to Donetsk ... and Pokrovsk.
FPV drones make Ukrainian resupply nearly impossible
Sometime this summer or fall, the Russian Center Group of Forces—which had been steadily grinding toward Pokrovsk for more than a year—finally got close enough to the settlements for supporting FPV operators to fly their tiny drones directly over the two main supply routes threading into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Some controlled by radio, others guided by signals traveling along jam-proof fiber-optic cables, the FPV drones made it extremely dangerous for any Ukrainian vehicle to travel along the roads during daytime. The proliferation of FPVs with thermal cameras meant nighttime was only slightly safer.
"All that we are seeing today in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad happened mostly due to the unmanned FPV forces of the Russians, who are blocking our logistics," Ukrainian service member Skhidnyi wrote. "The same crews that destroyed our logistics on the Kursk direction last winter and spring are still operating."
There may be scores of Russian FPV teams along the porous front line around Pokrovsk. Realistically, the HUR can't hit them all.
Ukrainian forces previously struck Rubicon's command post in August 2025, destroying a large ammunition depot in Donetsk Oblast. While that operation temporarily disrupted the unit's operations, military experts warned the unit remains a systemic threat that requires a comprehensive counter-strategy beyond individual strikes.
Rubicon's drone capabilities:
- Short-range FPV drones operated from front-line positions, targeting vehicles within direct line of sight of the supply routes
- Mix of radio-controlled and jam-proof fiber-optic guided systems that are immune to electronic warfare
- Thermal cameras enable nighttime operations, making 24-hour surveillance of Ukrainian logistics possible
- Hundreds of Ukrainian trucks destroyed during Kursk offensive in February, perfecting tactics now used around Pokrovsk
- Fiber-optic cables as thin as human hair, making them extremely difficult to detect or cut
