The Russian government claims full control over the domestic fuel market, with Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov insisting that supplying fuel to citizens and industry is an absolute priority. But the reality is different, according to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence.
Russian oil remains a key source of revenue that funds its military aggression against Ukraine. In 2025, profits from the oil and gas sector account for about 77.7% of Russia’s federal budget.
According to the International Liberty Institute, the main buyers of Russian oil remain Asian countries, as European markets are largely restricted by sanctions.
Black market of fuel coupons
Russia maintains stability on the fuel market in “manual mode." This tactic has led to confiscations of gasoline from civilians in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
Moscow has introduced a system of gasoline coupons due to fuel shortages. The fuel supply is tightly controlled, and civilians must use them to buy gasoline.
Due to such measures, a black market for fuel coupons has emerged, where local authorities resell gasoline at inflated prices in occupied Luhansk Oblast. Ordinary civilians face long lines, limited access, and rising fuel prices, exacerbating hardships in occupied territories.
The fuel crisis spreads beyond Russia
Other countries are already feeling the effects of Russia’s unstable fuel market. In Tajikistan, shortages of gasoline, diesel, and liquefied gas have been reported due to supply disruptions and broken logistics chains. Prices have reached record highs, and gas stations are limiting sales.
The Tajik government is seeking alternative supply sources to reduce dependence on Russia and prevent further crises in its fuel sector.
The illusion of stability and economic blow
Official Moscow proclaims stability, but events on the ground tell a different story. The manual management of fuel and Russia’s continued war against Ukraine are causing economic problems inside Russia and beyond, affecting transport, industry, and citizens’ welfare.
Ukraine’s sustained deep-strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has destroyed over 38% of Moscow’s refining capacity and forced the Kremlin to suspend fuel exports.
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