Russia is conducting a systematic information campaign to deflect responsibility for attacks against European targets, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.
FSB Head Alexander Bortnikov claimed on 16 October that the United Kingdom is "fueling hysteria" about Russian threats to Europe and alleged that "NATO intelligence services" participated in recent drone incursions over European countries—incursions that Russia itself conducted, ISW reported.
Bortnikov accused Britain of attempting to establish a naval blockade of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Baltic Sea, characterizing recent UK sanctions against Russia's oil industry and shadow fleet as part of this alleged "blockade" campaign. He further claimed the UK is planning sabotage operations with Ukrainian special services targeting the TurkStream pipeline and Russian critical infrastructure.
These accusations follow an 6 October statement from Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service alleging that Britain is planning for pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting for Ukraine to attack either a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port.
The SVR has released similar claims with increasing frequency in recent weeks, according to ISW. The institute characterizes this as "a new concerted pattern of activity" likely part of Russia's "Phase Zero" informational and psychological condition setting phase for escalated NATO-Russia conflict.
ISW reported that both the FSB and SVR are "likely engaged in a cognitive warfare campaign aimed at sowing confusion among the European population and the international community about the actor responsible for a variety of overt and covert attacks against NATO states, such as sabotage missions, electronic warfare (EW) interference, GPS jamming, drone incursions, and arson."
Officials from several European states have identified Russia as responsible for many recent attacks, including drone incursions into European airspace over the past few weeks. The European Parliament passed a resolution on 9 October identifying Russia as responsible for many "escalatory actions" and deliberate drone incursions.
