“Simply mathematical truth”: Ukrainian drones achieve more than years of Western sanctions against Russia – Budanov

Ukrainian drone strikes have destroyed 38 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity and suppressed processing rates until at least mid-2026, inflicting more economic damage than all Western sanctions combined.
satellite photos reveal what’s left russia’s key oil hub prized radar crimea damage unetcha pumping station russia's bryansk oblast right destroyed skala-m site occupied dnipro osint unech-pumping-station-damage-and-crimea-skala-radar-destroyed charred pipeline structures
Left: damage to the Unetcha oil pumping station in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. Right: destroyed Skala-M radar site in occupied Crimea. Source: Dnipro Osint.
“Simply mathematical truth”: Ukrainian drones achieve more than years of Western sanctions against Russia – Budanov

Ukrainian military strikes have inflicted more losses on Russia than economic sanctions from Western partners, said Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence. Speaking at the Kyiv International Economic Forum, he emphasized, "This is simply a mathematical truth," per UNIAN. 

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reports that Ukrainian drone strikes have caused long-lasting damage to Russia’s oil sector. Refinery processing rates in Russia are expected to remain suppressed until at least mid‑2026 due to repeated attacks that limit output and revenue.

Ukraine’s sustained deep-strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has destroyed over 38% of Moscow’s refining capacity and forced the Kremlin to suspend fuel exports.

Ukrainian strikes vs Western sanctions

Budanov noted that direct Ukrainian action has caused far greater economic and strategic damage to Russia than any sanctions imposed so far.

This is another unpleasant truth, leading us to conclude that current measures are clearly not enough,” he added.

Why are sanctions still insufficient? 

The Defense Intelligence chief stressed that current sanctions pressure from Western partners is insufficient.

If it continues as it is, it will not influence the mindset of the Russian Federation,” Budanov explained.

However, he acknowledged that a combined impact of sanctions and Ukrainian strikes will eventually yield results, although the immediate effect of economic measures remains limited.

Analysis of two months of deep strikes explains what Ukraine really targets at Russian oil refineries

Changing the strategy on deep strikes into Russia's rear

From spring to early summer 2025, Ukrainian forces largely avoided striking Russia’s energy sector. That changed when Russia renewed attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid this summer.

In response, Ukrainian long-range drone units reactivated strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine could now launch 100 to 150 drones into Russia daily. While still below Russia’s production output, the effects are increasingly visible.

On 15 October, Reuters reported that Russia’s seaborne oil product exports fell by over 17% in September as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted refinery operations across the country.

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