Russo-Ukrainian war, day 1233: Putin believes Ukraine’s collapse near as world leaders gather in Rome for Ukraine Recovery Conference

Exclusives

Russian troops beware: use thermal camo correctly, or get droned. Russian troops are wearing heat-trapping thermal blankets to hide them from Ukraine's lethal infrared-sensing night drones—but they're wearing them all wrong. And it's getting them killed.

Ukraine quietly unleashed its top tank brigade—now drones lead, infantry fights, and tanks wait. Ukraine's tank brigades are disappearing. The army is getting new heavy mechanized brigades that are better for the infantry-first fighting.

European court makes history: Russia guilty of Ukraine human rights violations since 2014 and plane downing MH17. The European Court of Human Rights recognized Russia's actions as a "targeted campaign to destroy the Ukrainian state as a subject of international law."

Ukraine's perfect German missiles never miss—but Russia's drone factories never sleep. Ukraine is getting 2,000 new German IRIS-T air-defense missiles. Against endless Russian drones, it still might not be enough.

Military

ISW: Moscow's drone strategy now targets morale more than military value. Even failed strikes help feed Russia's psychological war, the think tank assesses. NYT: Putin believes Ukraine's collapse is near — and he's acting like it. Despite Trump's frustration, Kremlin insiders say Putin sees no reason to stop his full-scale invasion. Lithuania tracks fake Russian Shahed from Belarus—NATO jets scrambled. Russia's Gerbera styrofoam drone entered Lithuania from Belarus then crashed. Vilnius failed to identify it. Reuters says Trump activates drawdown powers for the first time to arm Ukraine. Sources told Reuters the $300 million aid, not yet finalized, may include medium-range guided rocket launchers and air defense interceptors. As of 10 JUL 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 1030580 (+920)
    • Tanks: 11011 (+11)
    • APV: 22972 (+3)
    • Artillery systems: 30140 (+38)
    • MLRS: 1437 (+3)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 1193
    • Aircraft: 421
    • Helicopters: 340
    • UAV: 44781 (+324)
    • Cruise missiles : 3445 (+6)
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 54656 (+81)

Intelligence and technology

NATO allies test German AI drone as Ukraine already destroys Russian equipment with it. German company Helsing designed the HX-2 AI drone as Europe's answer to Russia's Lancet loitering munition. Storm Shadow returns: MBDA restarts SCALP missile Ukraine used to hit Russian command. France signals fresh production in 2025; Militarnyi hints Ukraine could receive new deliveries. Reuters: Trump resumes GMLRS rocket and 155mm artillery deliveries to Ukraine after Russia's largest airstrike. The US resumed weapons shipments to Ukraine after a brief pause. On Tuesday, Russia launched more than 740 drones and missiles in a single night. Zelenskyy asks Trump's Ukraine envoy Kellogg for US missiles – Trump calls Patriot systems "very expensive". As Russian strikes intensify, Ukraine is pressing its case directly to Trump's circle, while questions linger over the price of protection.

International

UK is ready for Ukraine peacekeeping mission—if there's ever peace to keep. British troops would help enforce an agreement that remains out of reach. US restarts shipments of rockets and shells to Ukraine — munitions already on the way. Washington sources confirm that guided rockets and artillery shells are once again flowing to Kyiv. Germany is ready to buy US Patriots—Trump undecided. Chancellor Merz says Berlin can fund extra systems for Ukraine, but Washington hasn't finalized anything. Netherlands pledges € 300 million for Ukraine recovery projects amid Russia's aggression. Russia has spent three years targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, making economic assistance essential for the country's survival. The Atlantic: Trump's erratic weapons policy leaves Ukraine flying blind. Ukrainian officials say unpredictability from Washington may prove more damaging than lost weapons.

Humanitarian and social impact

Ukraine's sleepless nation: 80% trapped in chronic stress from nightly Russian attacks. Millions of Ukrainians maintain economic activity despite "fatigue, tension and despair" from Russian constant bombardment of civilians, Ukraine's First Lady told international partners in Rome. Russia's war against Ukraine prompts Czechia to train teenagers in combat skills to strengthen national defense. Czech Army General announced the initiative aims to expand national reserves while introducing young people to military service amid Russia's security threat. Russia strikes Kyiv for 10 hours—two women killed including 22-year-old metro police officer (updated). Explosions were heard citywide as homes, schools, and hospitals sustained blast damage.

Political and legal developments

Russian intelligence paid Ukrainian teenager and her mom for arson attacks in Odesa. Russian operatives target financially vulnerable civilians who burn military vehicles to cause damage and demoralize the population in Ukraine. Frontline report: Russia's running out of oil money—so a Moldovan fraud king built a fake crypto boom. With oil profits down 30%, Russia's betting on a crypto scheme run by Ilan Shor — a fugitive oligarch, convicted fraudster, and Kremlin-backed power broker in Moldova.

Other developments

Russian propagandists shift stance on Trump, call him "Bidenized" after Putin criticism. Earlier, the US president said "We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin." Read our earlier daily review here.