Pokrovsk has become the primary target of Russia’s renewed offensive in Donetsk Oblast. In May 2025, Russian forces launched a coordinated push along the eastern flank, rapidly advancing in an effort to encircle the city, cut supply lines, and break through Ukrainian defenses.
As a critical logistics hub for Ukrainian forces on the eastern front, Pokrovsk’s fall would severely compromise Ukraine’s ability to hold territory in Donetsk and beyond.
“We’re entering a potentially decisive phase of the battle for Pokrovsk,” says military analyst Yan Matveyev. “The Russian army has already completed the early stages of its plan. The next month will be a crucial test for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”
The outcome will shape the war’s trajectory in the east. If Ukrainian forces hold the line, Pokrovsk remains a stronghold. If not, the city risks encirclement, logistical collapse, and significant territorial loss.
All of this is playing out against the backdrop of so-called peace talks—diplomatic overtures that have produced no tangible results. A recent call between Putin and Trump offered little substance, while Russian forces continue to escalate on the battlefield.
In this special report, Euromaidan Press distills Matveyev’s frontline analysis—examining Russia’s evolving strategy, Ukraine’s defensive challenges, and the mounting stakes as the battle for Pokrovsk enters a critical phase.
A coordinated multi-front push
Russia’s current operation is not a standalone maneuver but part of a multi-stage plan aimed at systematically encircling Pokrovsk. The strategy includes five key steps:
- Break through outer defensive lines
- Encircle from the northeast
- Encircle from the northwest
- Create a tight semi-circle to sever logistics
- Launch a final assault—either on a weakened or abandoned city.
Russian forces have already completed steps one and two. They’ve broken through the outer perimeter and are now advancing from the northeast. Step three—encirclement from the northwest—is just beginning and may prove decisive.
Despite some progress, the operation is moving slower than expected. Still, the overarching objective remains unchanged: cut off Pokrovsk from multiple directions and steadily grind down Ukrainian defenses.
North of Pokrovsk: Strategic Gains and Mounting Pressure
Between May 9–10, Russian forces advancing toward Kostiantynivka shifted west, refocusing on Pokrovsk’s northeastern flank. On 12 May, they entered Malynivka, despite notable equipment losses. By 17 May, they had captured Nova Poltavka, using a bypass maneuver around an unfinished anti-tank ditch to infiltrate Ukrainian trenches.
This flanking move relied on numerical superiority, overwhelming local Ukrainian units. A Russian flag was raised on the village’s outskirts; as of now, Nova Poltavka is fully under Russian control.
At the same time, to the south, Russian troops attacked Myroliubivka on 14 May, bypassing a reservoir and entering the southern part of the village before pushing deeper. One of the attacking vehicles was a so-called “tank-shed”—a tank modified with a makeshift anti-drone cage, used to transport infantry under partial cover.
“If such a large vehicle wasn’t destroyed in daylight, it likely means Ukraine simply lacked the firepower at that moment,” Matveyev noted.
By May 16, Russian units had also seized Mykhailivka, placing Yelyzavetivka at risk of encirclement. Though the weekly advance is only about 5 km, the density of settlements in this area means even small gains can have outsized impact.
“Even a 5 km gain here is dangerous,” the expert stressed. “There are only about 5 km left to Novoekonomichne, a critical defensive node.”
Novoekonomichne: The keystone in Ukraine’s defense
Russia’s broader goal is to push beyond Pokrovsk’s eastern edge, but two key obstacles remain: Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne.
Myrnohrad, a satellite city nearly as fortified as Pokrovsk, is unlikely to fall in the early stages. Matveyev believes it will only be targeted after a full encirclement, as part of step four in Russia’s plan.
Novoekonomichne, however, is already under direct threat. Flanked by two reservoirs, protected by the Kazennyi Torets River, a large industrial zone, and twin spoil heaps, it’s a naturally defensible position.
“From a tactical perspective, this is a fortress,” Matveyev explained. “But Russian troops have already begun their approach.”
Three-axis advance: Russian tactics revealed
The offensive on Novoekonomichne is unfolding along three main vectors across a narrow 9 km front:
- Along the T-0504 highway from Malynivka
- From the south via Myroliubivka
- From the north through Nova Poltavka, via Shevchenko, Koptieve, and Razine.
While the southern and central routes face densely populated areas, the northern flank offers open ground—more exposed, but potentially more rewarding if Ukrainian defenses are thin.
“If Ukraine cannot reinforce this axis within the month, Russian troops could reach Novoekonomichne’s northern edge,” warned Matveyev.
One particularly vulnerable spot is the narrow strip between the village and the reservoir. A breakthrough here could let Russian forces seize the spoil heap and flank Ukrainian positions—a tactic previously used with success near Avdiivka.
Next steps: Myrnohrad and the industrial zone in the crosshairs
If Novoekonomichne falls, Russian forces are expected to:
- Launch a direct assault on Myrnohrad
- Attack the industrial zone of the local enrichment plant—likely bombed in advance with FAB munitions
- Advance northeast through Fedorivka, Zatyshok, Sukhetske, and Radynske.
This would complete the northwestern encirclement of Pokrovsk and sever one of the city’s last two supply highways.
Can Ukraine stop the encirclement?
To prevent full encirclement, Ukraine must hold the defensive line running through Novoekonomichne–Razine–Novotoretske, anchored along the Kazennyi Torets River.
Recent footage shows robust Ukrainian fortifications: reinforced bunkers, trench systems, barbed wire, and anti-tank obstacles. But these defenses need to be manned and supported.
“Even the best fortifications need infantry and armor support,” Matveyev warned. “Without enough manpower, they won’t hold.”
Strategic uncertainty: Russia’s divided focus
Ukrainian analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets notes that Russia may be pursuing two competing objectives: a push toward Kostiantynivka from the southwest and a breakthrough toward Pokrovsk from the east.
“They’re attacking in both directions from the tip of their wedge,” he wrote on Telegrapm. “Trying to achieve both goals at once could lead to failure on both fronts.”
Bohdan Myroshnykov adds that the situation near Myrnohrad is also deteriorating. “Malynivka, Myroliubivka, and Yelyzavetivka are under pressure. FPV drone attacks are crippling logistics,” he wrote on Telegram. “The enemy has full operational initiative.”
Timeline: When could Russia encircle Pokrovsk?
Matveyev estimates that Russia may need 2–4 weeks just to reach Novoekonomichne from all three directions. Even under favorable conditions, full encirclement wouldn’t be feasible until autumn—and only if Ukraine fails to reinforce.
“It’s far from guaranteed,” he noted. “Russia planned a deeper advance in the west, but Ukraine counterattacked and retook Kotlyne. The same could happen here.”
Russia’s parallel offensive toward Kostiantynivka also stretches its resources thin.
Diplomacy and dead ends
Meanwhile, hopes for a negotiated settlement are fading. A recent Putin–Trump call yielded nothing concrete. Trump hinted the US might step back, nudging Kyiv toward direct talks—but Putin isn’t negotiating in good faith.
“He’ll stall with impossible demands—like a full Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson,” Matveyev noted. “It’s a trap.”
Conclusion: A city at the center of the storm
Unless Ukraine suffers a major military collapse, Russia is unlikely to take Pokrovsk within six months.
“Ukrainian troops have defended Chasiv Yar for over a year,” Matveyev pointed out. “Even at the current pace, Russia won’t take all of Donetsk Oblast by January. They may not even take Pokrovsk—let alone Sloviansk or Kramatorsk.”
Still, Ukrainian forces must remain vigilant. The northwestern flank of Pokrovsk is under growing pressure. If Russian troops achieve a breakthrough there, the strategic consequences could reshape the entire eastern front.
