Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announced Victory Day ceasefire is part of a broader strategy to manipulate perceptions and consolidate military advantages, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 28 April.
According to the think tank’s analysis, Putin is leveraging holiday ceasefires as tactical tools rather than genuine steps toward peace. The ISW concludes that Putin’s announcement of a temporary truce from 7-11 May surrounding Moscow’s WWII 9 May Victory Day celebrations allows Russia to force Ukraine into a difficult position while distracting from his rejection of the March 2025 US-Ukrainian 30-day general ceasefire proposal.
“Putin continues to refuse any ceasefire other than on terms that advantage his war effort,” the ISW stated, assessing that these limited ceasefires help Putin “maintain the illusion that he is interested in peace negotiations while keeping full control over the conditions and timing of any ceasefire agreements.“
The think tank’s analysis indicates that Russian forces will likely use the Victory Day pause for military preparation, just as they exploited the previous Easter ceasefire for reconnaissance and equipment repairs.
Zelenskyy calls Putin’s 9 May truce proposal a deceptive maneuver
ISW believes Putin views this temporary truce primarily as an opportunity for his forces to rest before future operations and to prevent Ukrainian strikes during Russia’s celebrations.
“Putin’s continued efforts to obfuscate his previous rejections of US and Ukrainian ceasefire proposals run counter to Trump’s stated approach of first establishing a ceasefire and then negotiating a broader peace agreement, and to Trump’s goal of achieving a lasting peace in Ukraine,” ISW wrote.
While Ukraine has consistently supported the US proposal for a comprehensive ceasefire, Putin’s actions reveal a strategy of using limited truces for tactical advantages.
ISW’s report highlights the stark contrast between Ukrainian and Russian positions, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy questioning the delayed implementation of Putin’s announcement and calling for an immediate 30-day ceasefire as a “foundation that could lead to real diplomacy.”
The think tank concludes that the Kremlin is attempting to “hold legitimate ceasefire negotiations hostage” to secure major concessions from Ukraine and the US. Since June 2024, Putin has demanded Ukrainian territorial withdrawals and constitutional changes abandoning NATO aspirations as prerequisites to any meaningful negotiations.
According to the ISW, these demands reveal Russia’s true objective: to “achieve longstanding Russian goals in Ukraine through diplomatic means that it is unable to secure on the battlefield.”
