Russian drone strikes against Ukraine have increased by over 50 percent since US-led peace talks began in mid-February, Telegraph analysis shows. Daily attacks rose from 101 to 154 drones on average.
This escalation contradicts Russian claims of seeking peace, suggesting that the Kremlin is exploiting the diplomatic uncertainty surrounding the negotiations to advance its territorial goals and weaken Ukraine’s resolve through relentless bombardment.
“Russia is trying to increase the pain it inflicts on Ukraine to make it more likely that Kyiv will make painful concessions,” said Daniel Byman, director at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
The 18 February meeting in Riyadh marked the first US-Russian talks about the conflict, excluding Ukraine.
“I think I have the power to end this war,” President Trump said after the meeting. Since then, the Kremlin has demanded the permanent annexation of multiple Ukrainian regions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is attempting to strengthen its position: “They want to improve their situation on the battlefield.” President Trump recently said he was “very angry” with Putin after weeks of negotiation attempts.
Attack spikes coincided with US- Ukraine tensions. On 28 February, when Trump criticized Zelenskyy publicly, drone strikes jumped to 208. On 7 March, when the US suspended intelligence sharing, Russia launched 252 drones.
“It’s clear that the Russians were trying to exploit the pause in intelligence sharing,” said Karolina Hird, analyst at the Institute of Study of War (ISW).
Russia has shifted to long-range drones that better penetrate Ukrainian defenses.
“The Russian strike packages are getting bigger and more effective,” noted Hird, calling this “incongruent with Russian claims that they are ready for peace.”
Ukraine adjusts tactics amid escalating attacks
According to Hird, Ukraine’s interception rate recently fell from above 60% last summer to below 50%, as Ukrainians have “realised that they have to be more conservative with their defence systems.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine increased its own drone campaign by 16.7%, shifting targets to Russian economic infrastructure.
“Over half of January’s strikes targeted oil, gas, and energy infrastructure,” said Olha Polishchuk of ACLED.
On the eve of peace talks between US Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, Russia launched 176 drones, hitting civilian targets in Dolynska in Kirovohrad Oblast and Odesa.
Experts say Russia benefits from the confusion around the ceasefire terms. “The diplomatic advantage for Russia here is the injection of confusion,” Hird observed. “Russia can claim it is interested in peace and Ukraine is not, but the data runs very contrary to that allegation.”
Read more:
- Forbes: Ukraine resurrects Soviet ballistic missiles that physics left for dead
- Frontline report: Ukraine’s dirt-cheap drone strikes cost Russia 900,000 barrels of oil every single day – and $ 21 billion
- Ukraine braces for Russian spring offensive as Moscow reinforces troops with 150,000 soldiers
