Russia may test NATO with limited attack, says German intelligence

Russia views its relations with the West as a systemic conflict and is preparing for a major war with NATO, according to a new report by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Bundeswehr, BILD reports.

The report states that the Kremlin is willing to use force to achieve its goals and could be fully prepared for a “large-scale conventional war” by the end of the decade.

While Lithuania’s intelligence service (VSD) assesses that Moscow is currently incapable of attacking the entire alliance, it may attempt to “test NATO” through a limited military operation against one or more member states to gauge the alliance’s response.

Despite Russia’s military focus on Ukraine, its air force and navy remain combat-ready. If the war in Ukraine ends, Russian forces could be quickly redeployed to the borders of the Baltic states.

Russia is now replenishing its military losses and producing more weapons than needed for the war.

"Russia’s military spending is increasing at a record pace—expected to reach approximately €120 billion in 2025, exceeding 6% of GDP. Compared to 2021, the defense budget has effectively quadrupled. The Kremlin plans to expand its army to 1.5 million personnel and increase military assets along NATO’s borders by 30-50%," the German intelligence cautions.

On 27 March, Germany announced it would supply Ukraine with additional military equipment to support its defense against Russian attacks.

The aid package reportedly includes air defense systems, drones, and radar equipment.

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