Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy officer, analyzes the recent Black Sea ceasefire in his opinion piece for The Telegraph.
A recent White House announcement has revealed that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea. According to the statement, “The United States and Russia have agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.”
The agreement also includes provisions to “restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports, lower maritime insurance costs, enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions, develop measures for implementing President Trump’s and President Putin’s agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine.”
Tom Sharpe raises three critical questions about this development:
- Progress toward a broader ceasefire: Sharpe notes it’s “too soon to tell” whether this represents the first step toward ending the larger war, though he mentions that the US had previously expressed hope that “a truce in the Black Sea would go on to a broader ceasefire.”
- Impact on Black Sea trade: Sharpe points out that “exports and imports to and from Ukraine have been at near pre-war levels anyway” since early 2024 due to Ukraine’s successful maritime operations that “effectively drove the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol.”
- Effect on Ukraine’s maritime position: According to Sharpe, Russia “would appear to have more to gain from a ceasefire,” having been “defeated in the naval sphere by the Ukrainians.” He warns that “a Black Sea Fleet out of hiding and allowed to roam free could threaten Ukraine’s maritime dominance.”
Sharpe concludes that while the ceasefire is “a welcome development,” it may ultimately prove “more advantageous to Russia than to Ukraine, which had already won its naval battle in the Black Sea.”
“Peace is good,” Sharpe writes, but “peace at any price isn’t.”
The agreement appears to have been facilitated with Saudi Arabian involvement, though the full details of implementation and monitoring remain to be seen.
Read more:
- Ukraine found a way around “the grain deal.” Now the US and Russia want to revive it
- Ukrainian defense minister outlines strict terms for Russian naval movement in Black Sea deal
- UK intel: Ukraine’s unconventional warfare reshapes Black Sea power balance
