On 22 December, defense analysts saw a sudden change in Russian navy activity in the Black Sea near occupied Sevastopol, which may indicate impending operations: the area “was busy with Russian submarines and warships,” NavalNews reports referring to open sources, including analysis of Sentinel 2 satellite imagery from the European Space Agency.
“When the Sentinel 2 satellite passed over at 10:47 am local time there were a number of ships outside the harbor. These included a Kilo Class submarine which appeared to be returning to base,” the article reads.
The article’s author, defense analyst H. I. Sutton, notes that there are a few possible scenarios as to why Russia has increased naval activity near Crimea:
- “Possibly it is a sign of Russia’s military reaction to President Zelensky’s visit to Washington. It is possible that we will see more Kalibr missile strikes.”
- “Moldova recently warned that it saw an increased threat of an amphibious landing to attempt to create a land bridge to Transnistria.”
- “Russia may be anticipating a Ukrainian advance south from Kherson towards Crimea.”
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