According to a US intelligence assessment that contradicts US President Donald Trump's promises of a swift resolution to the three-year war, both Russia and Ukraine may find greater incentives to continue fighting rather than rushing toward a comprehensive settlement, Bloomberg has reported.
The intelligence assessment was presented on 25 March during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the annual Worldwide Threat Assessment report, where senior intelligence officials, including Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, testified.
The report suggests that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin sees "positive battlefield trends" that allow him to exercise strategic patience. For Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality without strong security guarantees from the West could trigger domestic backlash and future risks.
However, both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appear to recognize the dangers of a prolonged war. The report warns that an extended fighting could cripple Russia’s economy and heighten the risk of an "undesired escalation with the West," while Zelenskyy likely understands that continued Western aid remains uncertain.
The US intelligence community also continues to assess the risk of nuclear escalation by Putin.
“Russia’s inability to achieve quick and decisive battlefield wins, coupled with Ukrainian strikes within Russia, continues to drive concerns that Putin might use nuclear weapons,” the assessment states.
Related:
- “I don’t give a damn about their tribunal.” Why prosecuting Russian propagandists is so difficult
- HIMARS strike destroys four Russian helicopters in single operation
- Ukraine liberates Nadiia village in Luhansk Oblast (video)
- Forbes: As Ukraine retreats from Kursk, Russian advances stall or reverse in other sectors
