Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has little reason to halt hostilities in Ukraine unless Russia achieves its objectives, according to a report by the Financial Times.
On 12 February, Putin, dressed in military uniform, visited a command post of Russian forces, where he was briefed on Moscow’s alleged progress toward reclaiming the entire Kursk Oblast. The FT says that this gesture sent Putin’s message: Russia sees no reason to stop fighting until all its goals are met.
While Donald Trump pushes for a swift end to the war, Putin aims to maximize Russia’s battlefield advantages while simultaneously convincing the US that engagement with Trump is proceeding as planned.
“There’s nothing Trump could plausibly offer that would make Russia give up on its objectives in Ukraine. But if you don’t have to say ‘absolutely not’ when there might be consequences for doing so, why would you?” said Samuel Charap, a political analyst at the Rand Corporation.
Meanwhile, Alexander Gabuev, director and senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, believes a 30-day ceasefire would seem like a trap to Putin.
“There’s a chance Russia could drive Ukraine into a corner on the battlefield to the point where they’d have to make some uncomfortable decisions. Russia knows Trump wants a quick peace, but it can’t let Ukraine off the hook,” Gabuev noted.
He added that during a ceasefire, Kyiv could negotiate with European allies to deploy peacekeepers. This would present Moscow with a dilemma: attack them and be accused of violating the truce, or accept their presence and allow Ukraine to strengthen its position.
Earlier, security advisers to the leaders of Germany, Britain, and France made an unannounced trip to Washington for critical talks amid ongoing peace negotiations.
In the ceasefire agreement statement released by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US representatives on 11 March in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah, Kyiv specifically insisted that “European partners be included in the peace process.”
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