The battle for Russia’s Kursk Oblast is reaching a decisive phase, with reports indicating that Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing from key positions. Over the past two days, Russian forces have regained control of several settlements, as well as a significant portion of Sudzha, a key Ukrainian stronghold. Sudzha was the largest Russian town captured by Ukrainian forces during last year’s surprise offensive in the region, making its recapture a symbolic victory for Moscow.
While the Russian military claims to have fully secured Sudzha, Ukraine’s military intelligence disputes this, insisting that some Ukrainian units remain inside the city. The situation on the ground remains fluid.
Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, high-stakes negotiations may be setting the stage for a potential ceasefire—provided Putin agrees to it. Following the talks, Washington has agreed to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, while Kyiv has accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal.
Why is the Ukrainian army withdrawing so quickly, and what can we expect in the coming days? Defense analyst Yan Matveev provides key insights, with Euromaidan Press breaking down the latest developments.
Sudzha and beyond: Russia’s rapid gains
After a brief pause, the Russian army has made a rapid advance, capturing significant territory in just 24 hours. A large area to the north, northeast, and east of Sudzha is now under Russian control.
Russian forces have also entered the town itself, securing the entire eastern side, including industrial zones and residential districts. Russian state media has begun broadcasting reports from Sudzha—a clear sign that the front lines have moved further away from the city.
Additionally, Russian troops have raised flags in Makhnovka, Dmitryukov, and Zamostye—villages that had been key Ukrainian defensive positions for months. These areas even served as the launch point for Ukraine’s last successful counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast. Yet, within a single day, they fell with little resistance.
Meanwhile, Russian troops have also secured Myrny and Bondarevka, effectively bringing the entire eastern bank of the Psyol River under Russian control. Further north, Zozulevka, Kubatkin, and Kozachya Loknya have also fallen.
With the front line now pressing against the Psyol River, it could serve as a natural defensive barrier for Ukraine. Among the remaining significant settlements in the area, only the western half of Sudzha—beyond Zaoleshenka and Goncharovka—remains in Ukrainian hands.
Notably, Russia’s entire advance has followed the Ukrainian retreat rather than attempting an encirclement.
“If Russian troops were acting on their own initiative, they would likely have attacked from the flanks, attempting to trap Ukrainian forces inside Sudzha,” explains Yan Matveev.
No battlefield, no rout: The reality of Ukraine’s withdrawal
As Russia advances in Kursk Oblast, two dominant narratives have emerged.
The first suggests Ukraine is in complete disarray, suffering catastrophic losses while chaotically retreating from the region. However, similar claims have been made before in situations where Ukraine withdrew from untenable positions, such as in Vuhledar and Selydove in Donetsk Oblast.
At the time, Russian sources claimed hundreds of prisoners, thousands of casualties, and battlefields littered with bodies—yet no such evidence ever emerged. There were no mass surrenders, no overwhelming destruction. Ukrainian rear-guard units did take losses covering withdrawals, but these were small tactical groups, not entire formations being wiped out.
Matveev dismisses the exaggerated reports, pointing to past misinformation.
“Where are the ‘900 prisoners from Vuhledar’? Show them! There aren’t any. And it’s the same situation in Kursk,” he said. “Russian forces entered Makhnovka in a single day—the same village they fought over for two months, where Ukrainians even launched counterattacks. And now, suddenly, they just walk in? Why didn’t they take it earlier if it was that easy?”
The same applies to Sudzha, where there has been little sign of intense fighting. Without battles, there can be no rout. Instead, it appears Ukraine is executing a controlled withdrawal—similar to Russia’s retreat from Kherson in 2022. Any clashes that have occurred seem to be minor skirmishes between Ukrainian rear-guard units and Russian advance forces.
“Ukrainian troops are withdrawing in an orderly manner. As of the evening of March 11, they were still holding the western bank of the Psyol River, likely to cover key exit routes toward Sumy Oblast,” Matveev explains.
Encirclement? Highly unlikely
Another narrative suggests that Ukrainian forces risk being encircled in Kursk. However, this scenario is highly improbable.
The Ukrainian grouping is large, and the withdrawal corridor remains open. Troops are retreating in phases, and the main units have likely already repositioned into the Sumy Oblast.
“To fully encircle Ukrainian troops near Sudzha, Russian forces would need to make two major breakthroughs across open terrain. But drones, artillery, and HIMARS are still in play, and minefields have almost certainly been laid,” Matveev points out.
Russian forces have been unable to quickly or completely cut off key roads. The distance from Sudzha to Ukrainian-controlled Sumy is less than 10 kilometers—even using rough frontline roads, armored vehicles could cover this in under an hour.
Of course, withdrawals are never without risk—there will be casualties, as in any retreat. But the idea of a complete encirclement is unrealistic.
“Ukraine is pulling back to avoid unnecessary battles, which strongly suggests they are preparing to leave Kursk entirely. If that weren’t the case, they wouldn’t have allowed Russian forces to advance into Sudzha so easily,” the expert adds.
Kursk’s outcome may decide Putin’s next move
As the battlefield in Kursk settles, diplomatic efforts in Saudi Arabia are accelerating, with ceasefire talks at the center of international attention.
This marks the first time the US has formally proposed a deal to both sides. Until now, Washington’s demands had been directed solely at Ukraine. The next step will be to see how the Kremlin responds—a decision that could define the next phase of the war.
“If Putin refuses, it will be interesting to see how Trump reacts—and whether he’ll face questions about how exactly he plans to ‘force’ Putin into a peace deal,” notes Matveev.
From a diplomatic standpoint, Ukraine’s decision to accept the ceasefire comes at a crucial moment. Trump has already stated he hopes Putin will accept the deal and even suggested potential US-Russia talks in the coming days. He also hinted that he would welcome another visit from Zelenskyy to the White House—while making it clear that if Putin rejects the ceasefire, US support for Ukraine will continue.
The announcement has sparked backlash in Russian pro-war circles, where Putin’s supporters feel betrayed. If Putin agrees to Trump’s terms, the internal reaction could be even stronger.
With Kursk nearly settled and ceasefire talks intensifying, Moscow faces a defining choice—pursue further offensives or shift toward negotiations. Whatever Putin decides next could shape the war’s trajectory in 2025.
What Ukraine gained from Kursk
Despite the challenges of 2024, Ukraine successfully launched an offensive in Kursk, though it either could not or chose not to transition into a second phase.
What followed was a prolonged defensive campaign, in which Ukrainian forces held off a numerically superior Russian army for six and a half months, despite being outnumbered by a factor of 2 to 4 depending on estimates.
Russia suffered massive losses, particularly in equipment. At the same time, Ukraine’s gradual withdrawal forced Moscow to keep 50,000–60,000 troops tied down in Kursk Oblast for half a year. Russia had to divert significant reserves to sustain the offensive—even bringing in North Korean personnel.
In the end, Ukraine couldn’t hold onto Kursk as a bargaining chip for future peace negotiations. However, its prolonged defense weakened Russia’s ability to sustain new offensives elsewhere, stabilizing the frontlines—particularly in Donetsk Oblast.
“Right now, we’re seeing Ukrainian counterattacks, while Russian advances—where they happen—are limited to small areas. Russian territorial gains have slowed to nearly zero,” says Yan Matveev.
Today marks Day 218 of Ukraine’s Kursk operation, with 190 of those days defined by Russian counterattacks. Even if Ukraine fully withdrew today, Russia’s average advance would amount to just 6.8 square meters per day (47 km² per week)—a relatively moderate pace compared to other operations in 2024.
“This speaks to the intensity of the battles and the resilience of Ukraine’s defensive strategy,” Matveev concludes.
Read more:
- “Plan B was needed yesterday.” Is Ukraine on the brink of withdrawing from Kursk?
- UPDATE: Ukraine is ready for 30-day ceasefire with Russia as US to resume aid for Kyiv
- Frontline report: Precision strikes on rare Russian Tulip mortar precede Ukrainian advance near Pokrovsk
