The battle for control over the Kursk front has reached a critical juncture as Russian forces intensify their offensive operations, significantly limiting Ukraine’s strategic options, military analysts report. Russian troops have advanced further into the region, making key territorial gains while leveraging overwhelming drone warfare to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and supply chains.
Initially perceived as a tactical maneuver to divert Russian forces from other battlefronts in Ukraine, the Ukrainian operation in Kursk was also intended to serve as leverage in potential peace negotiations, aiming to compel Russia into fairer discussions. However, with an increasingly narrow corridor of control, Ukrainian forces face significant challenges in maintaining their position.
Despite these challenges, elite Ukrainian units, including the 95th Air Assault Brigade, the 115th Mechanized Brigade, and the 8th Separate Special Purpose Regiment, continue to operate in Kursk Oblast. Their presence underscores Ukraine’s commitment to holding its positions against the escalating Russian offensive.
Russia’s drones are disrupting Ukrainian logistics
Artem Karyakin, a soldier in the Ukrainian Armed Forces known by his callsign Skhidnyi, has provided an alarming assessment of the situation. According to him, Russia has concentrated its best FPV drone crews in Kursk, severely restricting Ukraine’s ability to maneuver and resupply.
“Since late 2024, Russia has dramatically escalated its use of FPV drones on various frequencies, fiber-optic connections, and fixed-wing types. Their primary aim is to disrupt our logistics,” Karyakin explained.
He detailed how Russian UAVs now exercise near-total control over the roads and supply routes leading into Kursk from Sumy, a Ukrainian region bordering Russia. Enemy drone operators function in well-coordinated teams, executing ambush tactics and maintaining an almost uninterrupted presence over strategic roadways.
“Our forces are struggling to deliver ammunition and provisions. Evacuating the wounded has become a dangerous and prolonged process. Some soldiers have had to rotate out on foot because transport cannot get through,” he added.
The deteriorating weather has further complicated Ukrainian logistics. Muddy roads render supply routes almost impassable, and Ukraine’s “lifeline roads” to Kursk are at risk of complete disruption.
Ukraine’s narrowing corridor in Kursk Oblast
Upon reviewing the most recent data from DeepStateMap.Live and other credible sources as of 6 March 2025, it appears that the Ukrainian foothold in Kursk Oblast has indeed contracted significantly in recent weeks due to coordinated Russian advances from multiple directions:
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Eastern advance near Kurilovka: Russian forces have pushed westward from Kurilovka, threatening to sever major Ukrainian supply routes.
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Western advance near Sverdlovka: Russian troops are advancing toward the Sudzha checkpoint from the vicinity of Sverdlovka, applying pressure on the Ukrainian positions’ left flank.
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Southern push from Melovoye towards Oleshnia: Russian units are moving from Melovoye towards Oleshnia on the right flank, further constricting the operational space available to Ukrainian forces.
These coordinated advances have compressed the Ukrainian-controlled territory to a corridor just 12-13 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. What was once approximately 350 square kilometers of Ukrainian-held territory is at risk of shrinking to potentially less than 100 square kilometers.
Military analyst Yan Matveev notes that this geographical compression has created an extremely vulnerable position.
“The entire front is now under Russian drone surveillance, making even minor enemy breakthroughs potentially catastrophic. A Russian advance of just 5-6 kilometers in the right location could lead to the encirclement of Ukrainian forces,” he warned.
The political price of holding the line
Matveev has suggested that Ukrainian forces may soon have no choice but to withdraw from Kursk Oblast.
“If Ukraine holds its ground for another month, the cost will be enormous. Right now, Ukraine can justify the operation because Russian losses in personnel and equipment have been significantly higher. But continuing this fight in such conditions may shift the casualty balance in Russia’s favor,” he added.
Matveev also highlighted the political considerations influencing Ukraine’s decision-making.
“The only real reason to hold onto the Kursk foothold is to use it as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. However, losing a substantial number of experienced troops and advanced equipment in a drawn-out defense could severely weaken Ukraine’s military capacity in other regions,” the analyst noted.
The calculus is further complicated by Russia’s own territorial gains elsewhere. Matveev points out that “the two small Russian footholds in Kharkiv Oblast already amount to nearly 200 km²,” suggesting Ukraine may not be able to negotiate an equal territorial exchange when peace talks eventually resume.
The growing risk for Ukrainian troops
What makes the Kursk situation particularly challenging for Ukrainian forces is Russia’s overwhelming advantage in drone warfare. Karyakin describes a sophisticated Russian drone strategy where FPV teams operate in coordinated formations.
“Russian FPV drone crews operate in well-coordinated teams, flying in close-knit formations and effectively communicating with one another. They frequently employ ‘ambush tactics,’ where drones lie in wait on the ground before striking,” he said.
This approach has proven devastatingly effective. Ukrainian supply convoys face constant surveillance and attack from both sides of the border. Some road sections are partially or completely blocked by destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, creating additional obstacles for resupply efforts.
“It is no coincidence that Ukrainian soldiers in other areas report a lull in Russian drone activity—clearly, Moscow has pulled specialists from other regions to focus on this crucial front,” Karyakin notes, highlighting Russia’s strategic importance on the Kursk counter-offensive.
Calls for a new strategy for Ukraine grow louder
While the Ukrainian high command has yet to signal an official retreat, there is growing concern over the sustainability of the Kursk operation. With Russia concentrating an overwhelming number of drones and committing additional infantry forces, Ukrainian troops may soon find themselves encircled if reinforcements or countermeasures are not introduced.
A potential fallback to the Sumy border could provide a more defensible position, shielding Ukrainian territories from further incursions by Russia’s Kursk military grouping. However, any such withdrawal would come with political and psychological costs, given the symbolic weight of ceding territory.
“This is not a post meant to spread panic or despair,” Karyakin emphasizes, “But at this point, ignoring the situation is pointless. I know that Ukrainian military leadership is aware of the issue and has been taking some measures, but these efforts are insufficient so far. If there is a ‘Plan B,’ it should have been implemented yesterday.”
As the battle for Kursk intensifies, the coming weeks may prove decisive in shaping Ukraine’s broader military strategy for 2025. The Ukrainian command faces a difficult calculus: continue to hold a shrinking, increasingly dangerous position or execute a strategic withdrawal to preserve experienced troops and valuable equipment for future operations.
Read more:
- Ukrainian soldiers saw the drone—and then did nothing. A Russian missile did the rest
- Frontline Report: Ukrainian raids unravel months of Russian gains in Toretsk
- Frontline report: Ukraine’s Vampire hexacopter drones cut “the head off Russian snake” in Kursk strike
