It is universally accepted that when a nation’s leader schedules an official address to the nation, he’s unlikely to be the bearer of good news.
But the true gravity of the situation sinks in when the subject of a sovereign nuclear arsenal is being brought up at such an address.
This is exactly the atmosphere in which French President Emmanuel Macron delivered his televised speech to the nation yesterday, an address that has already been dubbed historic.
There’s a good reason why.
Sitting in front of the camera with the French and the European Union’s flags in the back, he looked composed and serious. So was the key message of his speech: Russia is a threat to France and Europe.
“Putin violates our borders to assassinate opponents, manipulates the elections in Romania and Moldova, and organizes digital attacks against our hospitals to block their operation. Russia tries to manipulate our opinions with lies spread on social media, and basically, it tests our limits. It does it in the air, in the sea, in space, and behind our screens. This aggressiveness does not seem to know any borders, and Russia at the same time continues to rearm itself, spending more than 40% of its budget for this purpose by 2030,” he said as the infographic appeared simultaneously on screen, showing Russia’s plan to increase not only the size of its troops but also its arsenal of equipment.
“This was a warning to the French and a continuation of the effort made by Macron since 2017,” Michael Benhamou, Director of OPEWI, Europe’s War Institute, told the Euromaidan Press. “France has become the center of European defense. The European leaders already met in Paris, then in London, and will meet in Paris again next week together with joint chiefs of staff to discuss European peacekeepers.”
What makes the upcoming meeting in Paris stand out?
According to Benhamou, this would be the first European meeting in decades without American representatives, possibly since the Suez Canal war in 1956.
This observation aligns with the spirit of Macron’s speech, which signaled two complementary and conflicting messages. On the one hand, he said that his previous travels, including to the US where he had a successful meeting with POTUS Donald Trump, made it certain that the US “is on our side.” But at the same, it’s not, especially since it wants to start a trade war with the European trade bloc, which Macron believes to be a grave mistake and, perhaps, an act of hostility.
The message is clear: We must take care of our own future.
How serious is he? The answer is likely a lot.
Macron’s rhetoric over the years has been consistent in the need for Europe to obtain strategic autonomy. He has made considerable investments in the French military and pushed for “a true European army” already in 2018. What he always fell short of was the allies, both inside France and outside, especially in Angela Merkel-run Germany.
NATO, despite the first Donald Trump’s tenure that almost fully coincided with Macron’s first term (2017-2022), was considered to be a sufficient security guarantee for the reluctant-to-act European capitals. Especially following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which served as a unification catalyst for the Alliance.
Now he’s entering the lame-duck period. His term expires in May 2027, and he will not be able to stand for election, which gives him space to maneuver and to etch his legacy in stone. As well as willing allies to do so, including the EU that launched the ‘ReArm Europe’ and Friedrich Merz, a zealous Conservative and the future German Chancellor who won the snap elections on 23 February.
Like Macron, he takes the security situation in Europe seriously and, together with the SPD, struck a landmark deal to boost defense investments by reforming Germany’s controversial debt brake. It was only natural that the French President mentioned him in his speech as part of potential French nuclear deterrence sharing with allies.
“France has a special status. We have the most effective army in Europe, and thanks to the choice made by our elders after the Second World War, we are equipped with nuclear deterrence capabilities. This protects us much more than many of our neighbors,” he said in his speech, adding: “The future German chancellor and I have decided to open the strategic debate on the protection through deterrence of our allies of the continent.”
“France’s arsenal is self-sufficient,” says Benhamou, commenting on the state of affairs, though the precise information about what the arsenal consists of—tactical weapons or strategic ones, too—is classified.
“This is the first time France considers its nuclear deterrent as covering Europe,” Benhamou notes, adding that the implications of this is not just the cost but also finding the locations for storing the weapons, making it a cumbersome undertaking.
The deployment of European peacekeepers to Ukraine, the security of which was in the focus of Macron’s speech, as a part of a potential peace deal with Russian, however, can happen and most likely will, according to him.
“How will we do this? How many troops? What will be their mandate?” These are some of the questions that Benhamou expects to be mulled over next week at a meeting of joint chiefs of staff and European leaders willing to participate in it in Paris. He doesn’t expect these questions to be answered after only one meeting, especially since we’re talking about tens of thousands of troops, not a small-scale operation of 2000-3000 troops.
But the question is, will it work?
Russia, despite being open to the US administration’s contentious attempts to appease it to bring it to the negotiating table, does not show signs of willingness to make any compromise – at least in its public remarks.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov publicly rejected the idea of peacekeepers from Europe or NATO countries several times.
Following Macron’s speech, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that the deployment of NATO member states’ troops would mean their “official involvement in the conflict” while also dubbing Macron’s nuclear talk as an issuance of threat to Russia.
This poses a conundrum to both Europe and the US, including POTUS Donald Trump who claimed that Putin is allegedly “ok” with such troops’ presence in Ukraine and he sees no problem with their presence on Ukrainian soil.
Regardless, for the troops to be deployed outside of the frontline, a truce between Ukraine and Russia must first take place. This condition is allegedly featured in the peace proposal crafted by the U.K. and France, which they’re poised to pitch to the Trump administration.
They’re also trying to mend the Ukraine-US relations that took a heavy hit after the debacle at the White House last Friday and have reportedly helped Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy author the reconciliatory tweet to Trump, where he regretted the spat between him, Trummp, and US Vice-President J.D. Vance that resulted in the US suspending all military aid to Ukraine, including intel sharing — but fell short of issuing an apology.
This is partial one-month truce would cover attacks by air and sea and also those targeting energy infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly supports the plan, which he also voiced in the mentioned tweet, which appeared to have assuaged Trump. He mentioned Zelenskyy’s readinness for peace during his address to Congress while also claiming that he received strong signals from Putin to seek peace as well.
What those signals are given that the Russian forces continue to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, with the latest attack on Kryvyi Rih’s hotel, resulting in two fatalities and multiple injuries, remains for Trump to reveal.
