VOA: West must abandon “democratic Russia” hope even after potential peace talks, say experts

Ukraine will be a crucial element in deterring Russia, but it needs support to fulfill this role effectively, say the researchers from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), according to Voice of America. Following Trump’s election victory, discussions have emerged about potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, as he has expressed a desire to end the war swiftly, saying he could do it even before taking office. However, that did not happen. It still remains uncertain how Trump will persuade Moscow to engage in negotiations. Reports suggest that he might consider a peace deal that compromises Ukraine’s territorial integrity and cease the US aid for the country. Experts argued that regardless of how Russia’s war against Ukraine ends, the Kremlin’s aggressive policies will prevent the West from ever returning to the idea of cooperation with a “democratic Russia.” For negotiations on Ukraine—mentioned by Trump—to succeed, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin must be compelled to engage in genuine talks rather than simply “demanding capitulation,” said Jeffrey Mankoff, a senior associate with the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program. He stressed that strengthening Ukraine and restoring its battlefield advantage are essential conditions for any meaningful ceasefire negotiations. The expert also said the Kremlin must be convinced that its assumption that time is on its side is mistaken and that Russia would benefit more from engaging in negotiations on Ukraine now rather than six months later. Meanwhile, Michael Kimmage, director of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center, warned against unrealistic expectations for diplomacy. Instead, he proposed a Cold War-era strategy of containing Russia by limiting its military influence. However, he noted that this would be more difficult than during the Soviet era, as China now supports Moscow, providing access to markets and capital. Mankoff added that resolving the war could take decades, during which deterrence should remain the West’s core policy toward Russia. Deterring Russia is a long-term task—potentially spanning generations, he said. The Cold War containment lasted 40 years, though this time, the expert believes, it may not take as long. Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program,  argued that Western leaders misjudged Russia’s ambitions. They failed to recognize that both the Kremlin and Russian society were driven by a vision of restoring great-power status. She noted that after the Soviet collapse, the West mistakenly assumed processes in Russia in the 1990s as democratization, but this was an exception in its history, which has now reverted to its historical norm. Consequently, the expert said, the West must also return to its own historical norm—containing Russia. Snegovaya also highlighted a major miscalculation: Western policymakers believed Moscow would prioritize economic interests over geopolitical ambitions. The reality turned out to be the opposite—Western nations became so deeply intertwined in trade with Russia that even now, some European politicians still hope to restore pre-war relations with Moscow, Snegovaya noted. Related:

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