Why Russia’s collapse is inevitable — and what comes next

The rapid and epic fall of Assad’s regime, which fought the opposition for 13 years with the support of allies, has once again reminded us that dictatorships are fragile. This shouldn’t surprise those of us who were born in the USSR or its ruins. However, many believe in Putin’s regime’s invulnerability, and Russian propaganda helps maintain this belief.

In reality, the key factors that typically seal the fate of authoritarian regimes are already at work within Russia’s KGB state. Its collapse isn’t a matter of IF but WHEN and HOW. Let’s explore why.

Why dictatorships inevitably falter

Any dictatorship, regardless of its form and scale, has fundamental vulnerabilities. Although they outwardly demonstrate rigidity, control, and strength, these regimes rest on a delicate balance: repression, corruption, propaganda, and fear. However, the internal stability of dictatorships is illusory for several reasons:

Power centralization makes the system dependent on one person or a narrow circle of elites. The death or weakening of the leader often triggers a “domino effect.”
Institutional degradation. In dictatorships, state institutions gradually transform into instruments of enrichment or repression. Not many strong state mechanisms capable of ensuring governance remain.
Social apathy and demotivation. Propaganda and fear don’t motivate constructive societal development. The absence of social mobility and justice leads to apathy in the majority and radicalization of the minority.
Unstable economy. Dictatorships often rely on resource-based economies and centralized control. Corruption, inefficiency, and sanctions make them vulnerable to crises.
Perhaps most critically, when violence becomes the primary tool of control, it inevitably generates blowback. Russian soldiers returning from Ukraine bring combat experience, weapons, and disillusionment with the state that betrayed them. Combined with internal repression, this creates perfect conditions for upheaval.

These factors are currently tearing Putin’s Russia apart from within. The Kremlin, which relies on the illusion of strength, is gradually losing control over the country. History shows that when dictatorships break, their collapse is both swift and devastating.

Four signs Putin’s empire is crumbling

A demographic collapse. Russia is dying out. The population is decreasing by 1 million annually, and the demographic potential needed to maintain the empire has already been exhausted. This decline disproportionately affects ethnic Russian regions, while the Caucasus maintains population growth – a pattern that intensifies ethnic and religious tensions, setting the stage for future conflicts.
The geography trap. Russia’s vast geography has become its burden. The state struggles to maintain coherent control with sparse populations spread across immense territories. The centralized management model turns the periphery into a financial burden, making logistics in remote regions unsustainable. The costs of maintaining such a structure are too high. Thus, more compact states have a strategic advantage in terms of survival capability.
Corrupt state model. Under Putin, Russia has devolved into pure kleptocracy, with national resources concentrated in the hands of a tiny elite. This corruption-feudal system paralyzes normal economic development, replacing the rule of law with a network of personal loyalties and informal agreements.
A broken society. Putin has achieved unprecedented levels of social demotivation, creating exactly what he sought: an atomized, opportunistic society. The result is a population stripped of meaning, motivation, and unity. The war in Ukraine has only deepened this crisis, producing a massive class of armed, traumatized criminals who will struggle to reintegrate into civilian life.

I am confident Russia will lose this year. Here’s why

The war is breaking Russia’s economy

War accelerates the economic collapse of authoritarian regimes – Putin’s Russia is no exception. His power has always rested on resource centralization, strict state control of key assets, and, in the past decade, escalating violence against society.

Long before the war, Russia’s economy suffered from “Dutch disease,” where raw material exports strangled other sectors, leading to stagnation since 2012. Now sanctions cut off access to Western technology, crippling the raw materials sector, while the civilian economy withers as resources feed the war machine.

The growing imbalance between military and civilian spending has created a classic “mobilization” economy. For Putin, war isn’t just strategy – it’s a means of maintaining power. Yet paradoxically, it undermines the regime’s economic foundation through systemic overheating.

Economic overheating occurs when growth exceeds sustainable capacity. In dictatorships, war accelerates this process as resources are squandered unproductively, leading to:

Rapid inflation. Military and defense spending drive up prices. Russia has already experienced this in rising food costs and goods shortages.
Labor shortage. War takes people to the front and military factories, reducing economic productivity. Labor quality falls due to migration and loss of the working-age population.
Growing budget deficit. The state finances war through monetary emission, undermining ruble stability and pushing the economy toward collapse.

The pattern is familiar: short-term “growth” masks slow stagnation and loss of competitiveness—exactly as in the USSR of the 1970s and 80s. While a war economy can briefly show growth, it ultimately collapses under military spending and technological isolation.

Russia today follows the same path. Military spending has already become a key factor in the growing budget deficit, and sanctions block most attempts to restore technological chains. Oil and gas sales to India and China provide life support but cannot overcome demographic collapse and fundamental economic weakness in such a vast country.

Even “freezing” the war in Ukraine will not solve Russia’s economic problems. Companies leaving Russia now signal deep market distrust, and a freeze only delays the inevitable collapse. Even partial sanctions lifting isn’t enough without substantial external investment, which requires major institutional changes.

Institutional degradation is inevitable because any meaningful reforms would threaten the dictatorship’s grip on power. Sanctions have only accelerated this decline, while corruption, negative selection, and manual control continue eroding Russian institutions’ effectiveness. The institutional decay runs too deep for even a “frozen” conflict to enable recovery.

The overheated economy won’t stabilize without reducing military spending, yet this remains impossible under the current “besieged fortress” model. Like the USSR before, the Russian regime faces an inevitable economic collapse – it’s only a question of timing.

Beyond economics, the social model is also collapsing. And again, even hypothetical “freezing” won’t save Putin here.

The 2023 rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin— the leader of the Wagner mercenary group who marched his forces toward Moscow—revealed how quickly elite loyalty can shatter. Throughout 2024, elite conflicts intensified within Putin’s inner circle. Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic, accused Suleiman Kerimov, a billionaire senator from Dagestan, of plotting an assassination. This remains unresolved as Kadyrov builds up his “pocket” troops. Anton Vaino, Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, is also involved in these disputes.

Inside Putin’s government, a battle rages over Russia’s future. Central Bank Governor Nabiullina and Finance Minister Siluanov fight for economic stability, while Rostec CEO Chemezov pushes for ever-higher military spending. This isn’t just a policy debate—it’s a fight for Russia’s direction.

Conflicts between elites are becoming open clashes, and the Kremlin no longer has sufficient authority to control them. Putin’s system has created a toxic environment where demobilized soldiers, embittered elites, and a demotivated population form a dangerous cocktail.

History offers clear parallels: Salazar’s Portugal collapsed in 1974 after prolonged colonial wars, which created masses of disillusioned citizens and discontented military personnel. Similarly, the USSR fell when society’s alienation from state institutions reached a breaking point.

Putin can’t escape an impossible choice: he either continues an unsustainable war or accepts a peace that threatens his regime. Here’s why freezing the conflict without a clear victory (like occupying Ukraine) would backfire:

his power would lose legitimacy among Russia’s most militant factions. Kadyrov, nationalists, and the far-right would see a stalemate as betrayal and weakness
masses of armed veterans would return home angry and disillusioned. Their combat experience and weapons, combined with resentment, could spark a crime wave that further destabilizes the system.

Putin likely sees this trap. Hence, a hypothesis: If Putin moves toward peace, he may have only one option – eliminating the radical elements within his own regime before they turn against him.

Russia’s three possible futures

Anything can detonate this system at an unpredictable moment. But what are the possible scenarios? There are basically three.

Power transition and gradual (or rather quick) democratization. I don’t see prerequisites for democratization and significant changes in Russia without implementing the second or third scenarios in some form. Because the democratization of even the Russian heartland requires a serious elite reset.
“Yugoslav scenario.” Like the former Yugoslavia, Russia has a critical mass of factors that could cause its collapse: economic collapse, ethnic and religious conflicts, weak power legitimacy, and regional separatism. However, Russia doesn’t have regions capable of independent statehood like Slovenia or Croatia. Instead, the country risks plunging into chaos with a prolonged political crisis and many conflicts.
“Warlord Era” scenario. What’s happening now in the Russian army and society resembles China at the beginning of the 20th century—the warlord era. After the 1911 revolution, the country split into regional clans, each controlling its territory. Today, Russia already has the ingredients for the last one: private armies forming in regions, armed bitter veterans in the rear, and elite struggle.

This “warlord scenario” looks increasingly probable as Moscow’s grip loosens. The result: widespread violence and lasting instability.

History shows that systems like Russia’s usually collapse from within, especially during long wars. This has happened before – look at the USSR or Portugal. No temporary fixes, like pausing the war or lifting some sanctions, can save a system that’s breaking down.

The basic problem is that Russia must choose: abandon imperial ambitions or disintegrate. But the changes needed for survival appear beyond the system’s capacity for reform.

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