The Washington Post, Business Insider, The Hill, and other media outlets suggest that Russia’s Kursk Oblast, seized by Ukraine, could become a bargaining chip in potential peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
In January, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that since August 2024, Russian forces have suffered 38,000 casualties (killed and wounded), and 860 Russian soldiers have been taken prisoner in Kursk Oblast. As of January 2025, Ukrainian forces have been actively engaged in renewed offensive actions in the region, successfully repelling nearly 100 Russian assaults in one month alone.
The Washington Post described Ukraine’s August incursion into Kursk as “Ukraine’s only clear battlefield advance in the past year,” emphasizing that should US President-elect Donald Trump push for negotiations, the situation in Kursk Oblast could become a pivotal factor.
However, experts note that while Trump has claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to meeting with him, this “should not be confused with a willingness to negotiate” as the conditions for entering talks remain unclear.
Business Insider characterized Ukraine’s bold offensive in the Kursk Oblast as a “tremendous risk,” noting that the assault allowed Ukraine to break out of a slow defensive situation, go on the offensive, and divert Russian resources.
The journalists emphasized that seizing the initiative, as demonstrated in Ukraine’s actions on Russian territory, “has long been understood to be key to winning wars.”
Without it, like in chess, “you’re constantly on the defensive, your adversary boxing you into a corner,” George Barros, a warfare expert at the Institute for the Study of War, said.
However, the Ukrainian military has to pay a high price for such operations. The offensive on Kursk Oblast has reportedly “chewed up a fairly large portion” of Ukrainian armor assets from Western partner nations, said Matthew Savill, a former intelligence analyst at the UK Ministry of Defense.
Meanwhile, Michael Bohnert of RAND Corporation argued that deploying tanks to Kursk Oblast may have been “the most optimal way to use them.”
The Hill highlighted Kursk Oblasts’s potential strategic importance, describing the region as “a valuable card in potential negotiations with Moscow.”
The report added that just weeks before Trump’s inauguration and pledge to negotiate an end to the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “appears to be doubling down on Kursk as both a strategic necessity and a bargaining chip.”
Mick Ryan, a retired major general in the Australian Army, agreed to the conclusion, stating that Ukraine will benefit from holding any amount of territory it can when and if negotiations start.
Meduza wrote that Russian political and business elites had hoped for a quick victory and the lifting of sanctions. However, Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk Oblast shattered any expectations of a swift peace on Russia’s terms.
“Sources within Meduza agree that hopes for a swift peace and easing of sanctions in 2024 faded after Ukraine’s summer incursion into Kursk Oblast,” said the report.
Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk Oblast was not driven by an objective to occupy Russian territory but is a necessary measure to ensure the country’s security.
Speaking with journalists, Zelenskyy explained that the operation was a preemptive step, as Ukrainian intelligence and its partners uncovered Russian plans to invade northern Ukraine, including troop build-ups aimed at occupying Sumy Oblast.
Related:
- Russian losses in Ukraine surpass 800,000 troops, says General Staff
- Ukrainian bomber drone strikes Russian Buk-M1 air defense system (video)
- UK intel: Russian casualties almost doubled in 2024, with overall losses likely reaching 790,000
- Forbes: Russia and Ukraine launch offensives on the same day in Kursk salient
