Russian forces see no incentive to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine while they believe they can maintain their advances, particularly around Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, says Michael DiCianna, a research fellow at the Center for Intermarium Studies at the Institute of World Politics in Washington.
The assessment comes at a critical moment, as President-elect Donald Trump's team prepares new peace initiatives for Ukraine. Yet the timing and conditions suggest these efforts may be doomed from the start, with Moscow betting it can outlast Western support while pursuing territorial gains regardless of mounting casualties.
"There's no real reason for the Russians to accept a ceasefire if they think they can keep up with the current pace," DiCianna told Euromaidan Press in an exclusive interview.
Despite heavy losses, Russian commanders believe they can outlast Western support for Ukraine.
For Putin, the decision to press forward reflects both strategic calculation and personal timeline. At 71, the Russian leader operates under increasing pressure to secure victories while he still can.
"I don't think Putin has the 2-3-5 years to take a ceasefire deal, rearm, and resume. He views the next 6 to 18 months as critical to seizing the chunks of Ukraine he wants," DiCianna explains. "He is not the young man he was in 2008, nor the youngish man he was in 2014. He doesn't have the time and patience to outlast the West that way."
This compressed timeline has heightened the Kremlin's urgency to secure gains, even as sanctions bite and Western military aid bolsters Ukrainian defenses. For Putin, any pause in hostilities could risk eroding his military advantage.
Most critically, DiCianna warns there is a "100% chance" Russia will break any ceasefire agreement, making the prospects for Trump's peace initiative particularly grim. While Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio and Special Peace Envoy General Keith Kellogg prepare to pursue negotiations, Moscow's calculus appears firmly set against any meaningful pause in hostilities.
Read more:
- "Putin too old for peace deals. It is now or never for him in Ukraine," US security expert says
- “Russians will 100% break any ceasefire in Ukraine,” Republican pundit warns
- Kellogg wants to broker Russia-Ukraine peace deal within 100 days of Trump inauguration
- ISW: Russians make marginal advances near Toretsk, Kurakhove, deploy more fiber-optic drones
