ISW: Russians resume offensive to capture Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk from south

Russian forces have launched a renewed offensive aimed at capturing Pokrovsk through a southern turning maneuver, the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 7 December. The operation follows successful expansion of Russian positions south and southeast of the town. According to ISW, elements of Russia's 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade have advanced along the Petrivka-Pustynka-Zhovte line south of Pokrovsk. Russian forces have captured Novopustynka and made advances near Shevchenko's southern outskirts. Geolocated footage from 6 December shows Russian progress north of Novotroitske and along the T-05-15 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynopil highway. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division are conducting attacks along the Novotroitske-Ukrainka line. On 6 December, Mashovets reported that Russian forces likely seized Stari Terny, indicating near-complete elimination of the Ukrainian pocket north of the Kurakhivske Reservoir.

The UK Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces suffered record-high casualties in November 2024, with daily losses averaging 1,523 and total monthly casualties exceeding 45,000. ISW assesses that Russian forces aim to flank Pokrovsk from the west to force Ukrainian withdrawal from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, avoiding costly frontal assaults, which have been the key Russian tactics since the beginning of the all-out war in 2022. The Russian military intends to interdict the T-05-15, T-04-06, and M-30 highways to complicate Ukrainian logistics.

"Continued intensified offensive operations in Ukraine [...] have put an unsustainable strain on Russia's force generation apparatus and economy. Russian authorities will likely have to balance mounting personnel losses and the growing pressure to enact a deeply unpopular partial involuntary reserve callup - which would further strain Russia's labor shortages and economy — against the desire to seize Pokrovsk and the rest of Donetsk Oblast," ISW concluded.

Related:

• ISW: Russia loses 53 troops per km² of captured territory this fall
• Frontline report: Ukrainian tank raids destroy Russian troops in bottleneck at Kurakhove’s Sontsivka
• Deep State: Russian infantry breaches eastern Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast, key highway at risk
• Russians execute four more Ukrainian prisoners of war near Pokrovsk
• Russian Forces capture Novoselydivka and Petrivka in Donetsk Oblast, advance in Kharkiv – Deep State
• Russians execute five Ukrainian soldiers captured in Pokrovsk sector
• Russian advances confirmed in Donetsk and Kursk Oblasts by ISW and Deep State OSINT mapping project
• ISW: Ukraine’s Pokrovsk defense alters Russian plans to capture city
• Forbes: outnumbered Ukrainian brigade destroys 206 heavy Russian vehicles in critical Pokrovsk direction
• Heavy artillery and assault groups: Russian troops step up assaults in selidove area near Pokrovsk
• Ukrainian defense expert says frontline is cracking but not collapsing