Russian gas giant Gazprom is making the assumption that no more gas will flow to Europe via Ukraine in 2025, a person familiar with the plans said, according to Reuters.
Due to the full-scale invasion and the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, Russia has lost almost all its European clients. According to media reports, in 2023, it transported about 15 billion cubic meters of gas through Ukraine, which is only 8% of the peak flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow was ready to continue pumping gas through Ukraine. However, the person familiar with Gazprom’s plans, who spoke with Reuters anonymously, says Russia’s base-case scenario is that there will be no gas transit via Ukraine in 2025.
Russian gas exports to Europe and Türkiye, excluding ex-Soviet countries – are expected to fall by a fifth next year. The number includes supplies to Türkiye via the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines but excludes exports to China, which are expected to reach 38 bcm next year via the Power of Siberia pipeline. At the same time, Gazprom estimates that Russian gas exports to Türkiye are unlikely to fall.
According to UNIAN, Naftogaz and Gazprom signed an agreement on gas transit through Ukrainian territory in 2019. The agreement’s term expires at the end of this year. Kyiv has stated that it does not plan to discuss extending it or approving a new one with Moscow.
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