If Europe promises the US that it will be able to find the funds to continue protecting Ukraine during the all-out war, the incoming US president, Donald Trump, might seek a better deal with Vladimir Putin, says Hugo Dixon, according to Reuters.
Trump has repeatedly stated that he will ensure the war between Russia and Ukraine is quickly brought to an end. Shortly after his victory in the US elections, Trump reportedly had a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During their talks, he advised Putin to avoid escalating the war in Ukraine. It is unclear how much the Russian president heeded Trump’s advice, as following the alleged call, Russia launched several large-scale attacks on Ukraine, including with record number of drones as of 10 November – 145 Shaheds and other drones.
Hugo Dixon says the funds that could become a decisive advantage to secure a victory in potential negotiations, could be taken from the $300 billion of Russian foreign reserves that the West froze at the start of the war.
“It is not just Ukraine which is nervous that Trump may cut a ceasefire deal that benefits the Russian president. The European Union, the United Kingdom and other European nations are worried too. A pact that left Ukraine vulnerable would be bad for their security,” said the analyst.
Therefore, Europe has a “serious incentive” to convince Donald Trump to hold out for a decent agreement, particularly by helping to find additional funds to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities, should the war drag on.
Trump may like the fact that most of any increased spending would go to American manufacturers because Europe has been slow to ramp up its own defense industry.
He could also put pressure on Russia by telling Putin that the West is ready to send as much extra financial and military support as Ukraine needs to hold the front line.
In that case, the US president could add that Russia would eventually run out of troops and money, so it is in its interest to agree to a decent deal now.
The $300 billion sum would not only impress Trump, but it might convince Putin that Ukraine could withstand a war of attrition.
Related:
- ISW: Russia exploits US policy uncertainty to pressure European allies on Ukraine, pushes for Ukraine’s complete surrender
- Zelenskyy calls Scholz-Putin phone call “Pandora’s box” weakening Russia’s isolation
- Scholz calls for peace in Ukraine during first phone call with Putin in two years
- Telegraph: Ukraine defense support at risk as German government dissolves
- Media: Trump names JD Vance, one of the critics of US aid for Ukraine, as 2024 running mate
