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ISW: Russia exploits US policy uncertainty to pressure European allies on Ukraine, pushes for Ukraine’s complete surrender

Despite recent diplomatic engagement with Western leaders, such as Putin’s call with German Chancellor, the Kremlin shows no sign of backing away from its core demand for Ukraine’s unconditional surrender, according to The Institute for the Study of War.
byVira Kravchuk
16/11/2024
2 minute read
zelenskyy calls scholz-putin phone call pandora's box weakening russia's isolation vladimir putin (l) german chancellor olaf scholz (r) meeting kremlin 2022 kremlinru gan9ncwgg5tjwl67y6uprfxcdijawmec-2
Vladimir Putin (L) and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) meeting at the Kremlin in 2022. Photo: Kremlin.ru
ISW: Russia exploits US policy uncertainty to pressure European allies on Ukraine, pushes for Ukraine’s complete surrender

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia is intensifying efforts to sway Western decision-making regarding potential negotiations over the war in Ukraine.

This campaign comes as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 15 November for the first time since December 2022. Scholz called for the withdrawal of Russian troops and emphasized the need for serious negotiations, however Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described it as opening a “Pandora’s box,” suggesting that it could undermine efforts to isolate Putin and prolong the war.

The timing of this call also coincides with Donald Trump’s re-election as US president, raising concerns among European leaders about potential shifts in US support for Ukraine. Trump has previously expressed skepticism about the level of financial aid provided to Ukraine and suggested he could broker peace quickly.

During the call, Putin repeated several information operations designed to encourage Western nations to push Ukraine toward early peace talks rather than continuing military support, especially as Donald Trump comes to the office soon.  

The Kremlin maintained its firm stance against compromise in potential future negotiations, suggesting its goal of complete Ukrainian capitulation remains unchanged, according to the ISW.

Russia is likely exploiting uncertainty about future US policy on Ukraine by intensifying its influence campaign targeting European allies. 

Since 2022, senior Russian officials, including Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, have used communications with Western officials to spread Kremlin messaging and attempt to pressure the West into making premature concessions regarding Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

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