Finland's Valtonen opposes "Finlandization" solution for Ukraine peace

Finland has firmly rejected the idea of imposing neutrality on Ukraine as a solution to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, with its top diplomat questioning Moscow’s reliability in adhering to potential agreements.

Russia has persistently demanded Ukraine’s de facto capitulation, with neutrality as a precondition for “peace” – a move that would end Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership. This discussion arises as US President-elect Donald Trump reportedly considers a swift resolution to the Russo-Ukrainian war, potentially through a freeze that would solidify Russia’s hold on occupied territories.

Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the Paris Peace Forum on 11 November, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen explicitly opposed applying the “Finlandization” model to Ukraine:

“I’m against it (Finlandization), yes. Let’s face it, Ukraine was neutral before they were attacked by Russia,” Valtonen told Reuters, speaking from the perspective of a country sharing a 1,300-km border with Russia.

The Foreign Minister pointed to Finland’s own historical experience, noting that Helsinki first fended off Russia in World War 2, then maintained subsequent peace, while continuing to arms itself in anticipation of potential future conflicts.

After gaining independence from Russia in 1917 and resisting a Soviet invasion in 1939, Finland was forced into “Finlandization” – aligning with Soviet interests while retaining nominal independence and its own political system. The term now generally means a powerful country pressuring a smaller neighbor to follow its foreign policy.

The Foreign Minister emphasized that such an approach would not resolve the underlying issues, stating that it’s “definitely not something I would be imposing on Ukraine. Definitely not as a first alternative.”

Valtonen expressed particular concern about major powers potentially bypassing Ukraine in negotiations.

“I really want to avoid a situation where any European country, or the United States for that matter, starts negotiating over the heads of Ukraine,” Reuters quotes her as saying.

Valtonen added that forcing Ukraine to accept terms against its will would undermine the international system.

“A larger power can not just grab territory, but also essentially weaken the sovereignty of another nation,” she said.

Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Finland, along with Sweden, abandoned its military non-alignment and joined NATO.

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Finland’s Valtonen opposes “Finlandization” solution for Ukraine peace