New research estimates North Korean arms supplies to Russia at $5.5 billion

North Korea could supply Russia with weapons worth up to $5.5 billion, according to research by the Korean Branch of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom. Earlier, South Korea’s intelligence said Pyongyang sent 3,000 troops to Russia with plans to deploy 10,000 by December to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. The first North Korean military units, trained at Russia’s eastern training grounds, have already arrived in the combat zone, particularly in Kursk Oblast. North Korea has also been supplying Russia with ballistic missiles and ammunition. According to the analysis, "the value of arms supplies today amounts to up to $5.5 billion." At the same time, analysts added that "even by the most modest estimates, the value of supplies exceeds $1.7 billion." In any case, North Korea can significantly increase its revenues through cooperation with Russia. South Korea estimates the total volume of its northern neighbor's economy at only $23.7 billion. North Korea's revenues can rise much higher after the decision of North Korea to send troops to Ukraine. Given previous instances of sending North Korean troops to Syria or Angola and the assessment of available information, experts consider reports on sending its soldiers in Russia's war against Ukraine to be plausible.

“However, to avoid jeopardizing the stability of the North Korean regime and considering the risk of North Korean soldiers fleeing and limited resources, sending more than 20,000 soldiers seems unlikely,” the analysis states.

The research shows how Russia and North Korea have become increasingly close partners since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

“Russia turns to North Korea primarily due to its enormous need for ammunition. But there is another reason: Russia uses its relations with North Korea — and the potential transfer of military technologies — as a tool to weaken the unity of Western alliances, especially in East Asia. In this way, Russia wants to pressure countries like South Korea and Japan to reconsider their support for Ukraine,” the analysis states.

However, such a strategy has its limits: Russian President Vladimir Putin can only receive outdated and unreliable military equipment from Pyongyang.

Related:

• Zelenskyy: Ukraine will have to fight in Europe against North Korea
• NYT: North Korean forces mass in Kursk to help Russia drive Ukraine out
• Zelenskyy: North Korean troops will join Russia’s war against Ukraine on 27-28 October
• South Korean intelligence: North Korea to send more troops to Russia