DeepState: Russia advances near six settlements in Donetsk Oblast and Kursk Oblast

Russian occupying forces made advances near several settlements in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast and Russia's Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian analytical group DeepState reported on 14 October.

Russia has intensified its advancement on the Ukrainian frontline in an attempt to secure territorial gains before winter sets in. This offensive push may also "improve" Russia's negotiating position in future peace talks. Russian terms for ceasefire talks demand a de facto capitulation of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir said on 14 June 2024. Russia demands that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and Crimea, which Russia has been occupying since 2014.

According to analysts, Russian forces are advancing near Olhivka and Kremyane in the Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces started their offensive in Russia's Kursk Oblast on 6 August. It reportedly aims to destabilize Russian defenses by forcing them to divert resources away from critical fronts in Ukraine, such as Donetsk Oblast.

Although Russia redeployed about 50,000 troops to Kursk Oblast from other fronts in Ukraine, DeepState also reported on 14 October that Russia advanced near Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, Vuhledar, Tsukuryne, and Zolota Nyva in Donetsk Oblast.

This comes after Ukrainian forces confirmed their withdrawal from Vuhledar on 2 October.

Vuhledar, a town with a pre-war population of 14,000 in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, is a strategically important city on high ground that the Russian troops want to use for further advances and offensives.

The Khortytsia military unit reported on 2 October that Ukrainian units had withdrawn from Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, after Russian forces entered the city on 1 October. Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, said that Ukrainian defenders stopped the active Russian offensive near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.

Since October 2023, Pokrovsk has been a focal point of intense fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with Russia launching major offensives to capture the nearby city of Avdiivka and expand its control in western Donetsk Oblast. The population of Pokrovsk has significantly decreased, with only 13,050 residents remaining compared to over 48,000 just six weeks ago. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also reported on 3 October that Russian troops had recently made some advances east and southeast of Pokrovsk and near Svatove and Siversk. Southern Defense Forces said that the Russian forces are preparing for assaults in Zaporizhzhia to take control of the entire Donetsk Oblast. On 3 October, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi, reportedly in the Pokrovsk direction, announced decisions to enhance the defense in the Pokrovsk. British Intelligence reported on 5 October that the Zaporizhhzia front might face increased pressure after Russian troops captured Vuhledar. British intelligence identified two possible objectives for further Russian offensive: Velyka Novosilka to the west in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Bohoiavlenka, 8 kilometers (4.9 miles) to the north. This move would significantly enhance Russian logistics and mobility in the region.

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