Germany’s government fears a Russian defeat and therefore doesn’t want Ukraine to win the war, claims Dr. Benjamin Tallis. A former member of the German Council on Foreign Relations with experience in EU security missions in Ukraine and the Balkans, Tallis now directs the Berlin-based think tank Democratic Strategy Initiative.
This statement comes in the wake of German local elections that saw gains for openly pro-Russian parties – far-right AfD and far-left Alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht. Though state elections don’t directly influence foreign policy, the results may lead the federal ruling coalition to misinterpret public sentiment on Ukraine support.
Tallis elaborates on the specific concerns driving Germany’s stance.
“They’re scared of what a Russian defeat might mean – a potential collapse, loose nukes, and so on,” he told Euromaidan Press.
However, Tallis argues that this stance shows Berlin’s inability to properly calculate risks.
“It’s short-sighted and ignores the bigger picture of what’s at stake here,” the expert says.
Tallis explains that the German chancellery seeks a swift end to the war, aiming to preserve much of the pre-2022 status quo to protect Germany’s business interests.
“However, many Germans support Ukraine’s victory, seeing it as a win for themselves too,” the expert claims.
Meanwhile, Germany’s ongoing budget process for the upcoming year involves significant spending cuts. As a result, aid to Ukraine may be reduced by half, from 8 to 4 billion euros annually. Berlin suggests that come 2025, Ukraine will be supported by a 50 billion euro fund pledged by the G7, to be sourced from profits on frozen Russian assets. However, the mechanism for implementing this plan remains undetermined.
Read more:
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- Germany delivers new military aid package to Ukraine, which includes IRIS-T air defense system, ammunition, drones
