The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 31 August that the Russian military command has redeployed some forces initially intended to support Russia’s priority offensive operations in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast to Russia’s Kursk Oblast. This move suggests that operational pressures from the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast are affecting Russian military efforts across various sectors.
Russian sources and social media users claimed on 14 and 17 August that elements of the Russian 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade, part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District, were shifted from the Pokrovsk direction to Kursk Oblast. ISW noted that other elements of the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade were observed operating east of Pokrovsk in mid-August and as recently as today.
Additionally, the volunteer-led OSINT organization Evocation.info reported on 19 August that Russia had redeployed elements of the 1st “Slavic” Motorized Rifle Brigade, part of the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps, from the Donetsk direction to Kursk Oblast. ISW observed these elements in action in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions in late July and August 2024.
ISW emphasized that there is no indication these redeployed elements were previously engaged in frontline combat in Russia’s priority directions of Toretsk and Pokrovsk. The redeployed units were likely reserve forces that the Russian military command intended to use to reinforce these areas and prevent a premature operational culmination.
Impact of Redeployment on Russian Operations
The decision to redeploy limited elements to Kursk Oblast instead of using them to advance in the Pokrovsk or Toretsk directions “suggests that the Russian military command has not been able to fully insulate its priority offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast from the manpower demands brought about by the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast,” ISW says.
So far, Russia has avoided redeploying forces designated for offensive operations in Toretsk or Pokrovsk to defend against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast. Instead, forces have been pulled from lower-priority areas, including northern Kharkiv Oblast, the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, and western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as per ISW. The limited redeployment of elements from the 15th and 1st Motorized Rifle Brigades is unlikely to immediately impact the battlefield situation in Pokrovsk or Toretsk, given their small numbers, the think tank believes.
“It remains unclear if the Russian military command has already or will redeploy additional reserve forces intended for Russia’s offensive operations in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast,” ISW says.
Related:
- Situation remains “difficult” in Pokrovsk sector, top Ukrainian general says
- UK intel: Russia creating volunteer units to counter Ukraine in Kursk Oblast while prioritizing Pokrovsk axis
- Syrskyi: Ukraine advances 2 km in Kursk Oblast as Pokrovsk remains most challenging sector
- ISW: Russian military pursues dual tactical efforts around Pokrovsk
- ISW: Russian forces making significant gains toward Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces entrenching in Kursk Oblast
- ISW: Russian forces make relatively rapid advances near Donetsk’s Pokrovsk
