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ISW: Russia resists troop shifts as Ukrainian Kursk incursion threatens Donetsk offensive

Russian forces face a strategic dilemma as they respond to a surprise Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, potentially impacting ongoing operations in eastern Ukraine.

byYevheniia Martyniuk

10/08/2024

2 minute read

Destroyed column of Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. Photo: https://t.me/belpepel

ISW: Russia resists troop shifts as Ukrainian Kursk incursion threatens Donetsk offensive

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia is initially responding to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast with border units and rear forces, primarily consisting of conscripts and irregulars. While more experienced units may be deployed later, their transfer from other fronts would take time. Combat operations have persisted in Kursk Oblast since 6 August, following a Ukrainian military incursion. The region faces widespread panic and disorganized evacuations. Details remain scarce on the number of Ukrainian troops involved, their objectives, and the strategic rationale behind this offensive, particularly given Ukraine’s difficult situation on the front in Donetsk Oblast.

“The Russian military command may currently be resisting operational pressures to redeploy forces from other operational directions to prevent the Ukrainian incursion from disrupting Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine,” the analysts assess.

However, at least one Russian military blogger claims elements of the 44th Army Corps, part of the North grouping, are already active near Rylsk, Kursk Oblast.

ISW analysts suggest that a major redeployment from the North grouping to Kursk Oblast would signify Russian command's willingness to sacrifice its northern Kharkiv offensive in Ukraine to address the incursion. This strategy would allow Russia to respond effectively without pulling units from higher-priority front line sectors. Read more:

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