The US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that the Biden Administration’s limited policy change allows Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to strike certain Russian military targets within a confined area of Russian territory. However, this adjustment has reduced Russia’s ground sanctuary—areas within range of Ukrainian ATACMS—by only a maximum of 16%. As a result, US policy still preserves at least 84% of Russia’s ground sanctuary.
ISW says this policy limitation on the use of American-supplied weapons has effectively created a substantial sanctuary for Russia. This protected zone includes territory within the reach of US-provided weaponry, where Ukrainian forces are restricted from targeting Russian military infrastructure, including combat forces, command and control centers, logistics, and rear area support services essential for Russian operations in Ukraine.
Despite the policy shift, the vast majority of Russia’s operational rear and deep rear areas remain protected under US policy, which forbids Ukraine from using ATACMS anywhere in Russia, ISW notes. The policy change in late May 2024 concerning the use of US-provided weapons against military targets in Russia removed at most 16% of Russia’s ground sanctuary, assuming Ukrainian forces can strike all legitimate Russian military targets within the range of Ukrainian HIMARS using GMLRS in Russia’s Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts.
However, it remains unclear if Ukrainian forces have permission to strike all targets in those areas, ISW notes. Senior US officials have described Ukraine’s capability to strike into Russia with GMLRS as limited to counterbattery fire and geographically restricted to the Kharkiv area. They have also indicated that Ukrainian forces may strike Russian military objects “deployed just across the [Ukrainian] border,” suggesting restrictions against targeting Russian military installations deeper in the rear or in other areas of Kursk and Bryansk oblasts still within GMLRS range. US officials’ statements also suggest that Ukrainian forces may be constrained from targeting Russian military installations not actively involved in ground attacks against Ukraine.
Read also:
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- BBC: Ukraine can now target military airfields in Russia with Storm Shadow cruise missiles
- ISW: Lack of clarity on US weapons restrictions for Kyiv enables Russian military threats along Ukraine’s border
- Ukraine struck Russia with HIMARS just hours after the ban was lifted
