ISW: Russian forces likely capture Pervomayske, southwest of Avdiivka

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 9 April that Russian forces recently advanced west of Avdiivka and likely captured Pervomayske, southwest of Avdiivka. Pervomayske is located close to the city of Avdiivka, which the Russians captured in February of this year, continuing to advance in the villages around Avdiivka. According to ISW, geolocated footage published on 9 April shows elements of the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade raising a flag in western Pervomayske. Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have not yet fully captured Pervomayske. However, another geolocated footage published on 9 April shows Russian forces advanced in fields northeast of Netaylove, west of Pervomayske. Ukrainian analytical portal Deep State Map reported on 9 April Russian forces had breached the defenses of the 59th Rifle Battalion and occupied the village of Pervomayske, one of the hottest points in the ongoing war. The village had a pre-war population of over 2,000. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced northward along Tsentralna Street in Semenivka and in fields west of Tonenke, both west of Avdiivka, as well as southeast of and in Novokalynove, northwest of Avdiivka. A Ukrainian soldier operating in the Avdiivka direction stated that Russian forces were attempting to take Semenivka by attacking in groups of five to seven infantrymen both from the east and from the north. ISW assessed in its report in early April that Russian forces increased the number and size of mechanized ground assaults on select sectors of the frontline in Ukraine in the late March-early April. ISW also reported that the intensification of Russian mechanized assaults has occurred generally at the same time as intensified strikes against Ukrainian energy and electricity infrastructure. The strikes may be aimed at pressuring the Ukrainian command to deploy air defense systems away from the front to more safely intensify aviation operations in support of ground operations, according to ISW. Other takeaways from the report:

• Russian state media highlighted Russia and China’s joint effort to combat perceived Western “dual containment” targeting Russia and China during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on 9 April.
• Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to employ virulently anti-migrant rhetoric and calls for xenophobic domestic policies, but in doing so are exposing the inherent hypocrisy in Russia’s treatment of its own indigenous ethnic minority communities.
• Russia is reportedly considering creating a new ministry for youth policy and patriotic education, likely as part of an ongoing attempt to instill pro-Kremlin and Kremlin-approved ideology in Russia’s next generation.
• Russian military authorities in Armenia detained another Russian citizen in Armenia, likely to assert military and political power over Armenia and to challenge Armenia’s sovereignty amid a continued deterioration of Armenian–Russian relations.
• The Russian occupation regime in Crimea is systematically persecuting clergy and parishes affiliated with the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) in occupied Crimea.

Read also:

• ISW: Delayed US military supplies impact the Ukrainian forces’ capabilities to respond to Russian mechanized assaults
• ISW: Kremlin claims NATO and Russia in “direct confrontation” to deter Western support for Ukraine