Russo-Ukrainian War, day 769: Ukrainian AI drones cut off Russia’s fuel supply in precision strikes

Exclusives

Can Russia take Kharkiv?. Russia is reportedly preparing an operation to take Ukraine's second-largest city. Not so fast, say military experts

Russians build alternative railways for military logistics in Ukraine's occupied south. Amid delayed weapon deliveries by allies, Russia accelerates the construction of alternative railway links in Ukraine's occupied south, linking strategic cities and creating defensive structures to support military logistics.

Military

Zelenskyy signs bill lowering mobilization age to 25. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has approved a bill reducing the mobilization age for combat duty from 27 to 25, aiming to bolster Ukraine's military strength in its war with Russia. UK intel: Helicopters landing on painted fighter silhouettes expose flaws in Russia's decoy strategy. Russia paints decoy fighter jets at air bases, but helicopters landing on fakes undermine deception, revealing true aircraft numbers, per UK intelligence. CNN: Ukraine's AI-enabled drones disrupting Russia's oil industry, so far successfully. Ukraine employs AI-enabled drones to target Russian oil refineries, disrupting a vital revenue stream for Moscow's invasion. These drones, with machine vision, navigate autonomously and have significantly impacted Russia's refining capacity, CNN says. Another oil refinery targeted in Russia's Tatarstan by drones. Unknown drones targeted an oil refinery and a Shahed drone assembly plant in Tatarstan, Russia, causing damage, with reports suggesting Ukrainian-made drones were used in this deep attack into Russian territory. ISW: Russia may focus its forecasted offensive in one operational direction in upcoming months. The Russian command may focus their forecasted late spring/summer 2024 offensive operation on western Donetsk Oblast and will likely only be able to launch a concerted large-scale offensive operation in one operational direction at a time due to the country's own personnel and planning limitations, according to a new report by the Institute for the Study of War. As of 2 April 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day: Personnel: 443660 (+780) Tanks: 6998 (+12) APV: 13350 (+29) Artillery systems: 11112 (+30) MLRS: 1023 Anti-aircraft systems: 744 Aircraft: 347 Helicopters: 325 UAV: 8779 (+22) Cruise missiles: 2058 (+1) Warships/boats: 26 Submarines: 1 Vehicles and fuel tanks: 14783 (+31)

Intelligence and technology

Estonia found €2-3 billion in shells, missiles for Ukraine, needs funding from allies. Estonia's Defense Minister Pevkur reveals plans to purchase 800,000 shells for Ukraine, similar to the Czech initiative, if allies provide funding. US sends more than 100 generators to Ukraine amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. As Russia escalates attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, the US sends over 100 generators to aid affected regions. CNN: Ukraine's AI-enabled drones disrupting Russia's oil industry, so far successfully. Ukraine employs AI-enabled drones to target Russian oil refineries, disrupting a vital revenue stream for Moscow's invasion. These drones, with machine vision, navigate autonomously and have significantly impacted Russia's refining capacity, CNN says. Another oil refinery targeted in Russia's Tatarstan by drones. Unknown drones targeted an oil refinery and a Shahed drone assembly plant in Tatarstan, Russia, causing damage, with reports suggesting Ukrainian-made drones were used in this deep attack into Russian territory.

International

The Netherlands allocates € 10 mln to assist Ukraine in investigating Russian war crimes. The Netherlands has allocated €10 million to support Ukraine's investigation and prosecution efforts, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hanke Bruins Slot announced at the "Restoring Justice for Ukraine" international conference held in The Hague, according to UkrInform. Ukraine brings deported boy home from Russia. The Ukrainian authorities, together with Save Ukraine, a charitable organization that aids families and children affected by war, returned a 17-year-old boy from Russia to Ukraine. Polish farmers resume blockade at Ukraine border crossing despite recent negotiations. Despite recent negotiations between Polish and Ukrainian leaders, who claimed to reach "progress," Polish farmers resumed their blockade at a Ukraine border crossing today, disrupting trade and inadvertently benefiting Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine.

Political and legal developments

Media investigation: Russian intelligence unit could be behind Havana syndrome . American diplomats may have been targeted by Russian sonic weaponry triggering mysterious conditions, say The Insider, Der Spiegel, and CBS's 60 Minutes in a new investigation. Ukrainian intel says it blew up power substation in occupied Sevastopol, Russians claim "short circuit". Overnight, Ukrainian intelligence operatives targeted a power substation in occupied Sevastopol, leading to a power outage, as per media sources. Occupation authorities claimed a short circuit. Ukraine intel: Russia seeks to tarnish Ukraine's image in Global South with Crocus attack allegations. Ukrainian military intelligence suggests Russia aims to use accusations against Ukraine related to a recent ISIS-K attack in the Moscow region to undermine Kyiv's reputation internationally, particularly in the Global South.

New developments

Germany to fund buying 180,000 rounds for Ukrainian via Czech artillery ammo initiative. Germany has announced a contribution of 180,000 rounds of artillery shells to Ukraine, costing 576 million euros, as part of a Czech-led ammo initiative, bringing Germany's total recent support to over one billion euros, including a March aid package. Read our earlier daily review here.