Ukraine can win the war with Russia if it continues receiving military aid from its allies and learns lessons from the “mistakes that led to its failed counteroffensive in 2023,” says Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, in an article for The Guardian.
The Kremlin believes it can win by 2026, and its leader Vladimir Putin isn’t planning peace negotiations or withdrawal of its troops from the territory of Ukraine as Russia has been increasing weapons production and deliveries of ammunition from Iran and North Korea, the expert writes.
Today, the Ukrainian armed forces are struggling to fire 2,000 rounds daily and Russian artillery is reaching about 10,000.
While in March 2023, the EU decided to deliver a million artillery shells to Ukraine within 12 months, the number that has actually been sent is closer to 300,000. To defeat the Russian military, Ukraine will require a new supply approach from its partners. If the steps to improve the delivery competence are not taken, Ukraine will lose, Watling says.
In addition, the expert stresses that NATO has to expand the training support for Ukrainian units to provide them with wider tactical tools to fight off Russian troops on the battlefield and “the scale at which the army can command and synchronize operations.”