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ISW: Russian offensives continue near Avdiivka and Bakhmut

Despite ongoing Russian offensives near Bakhmut and Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, the Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces have repelled all attacks., as detailed by ISW.
A Ukrainian tank on the frontline. Credit: Ukraine’s General Staff

On 30 November, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka, with advancements reported in the area, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest update. Russian military bloggers (milbloggers) claimed that Russian troops advanced west of the railway line near Stepove, approximately 3 kilometers northwest of Avdiivka, and near Novokalynove, 11 kilometers northwest of Avdiivka.

Furthermore, Russian sources on November 29 and 30 alleged that Russian forces also made progress north of the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka. They noted ongoing fighting near the Avdiivka Coke Plant and the adjacent waste heap. These claims contrast with reports from the Ukrainian General Staff, which stated that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attacks in several key locations, including Stepove, Novokalynove, and Avdiivka, as well as areas east of Novobakhmutivka and south of Tonenke.

Ukrainian Suspilne news outlet reported that the terrain near Avdiivka, initially frozen, has turned to mud, posing challenges for vehicle mobility for both Russian and Ukrainian forces. Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces, added that Russian forces have been conducting glide bomb strikes with Su-35 aircraft in the vicinity of Avdiivka.

In addition to the Avdiivka operations, ISW notes that Russian forces reportedly made multiple advances near Bakhmut on the same day. Russian milbloggers claimed progress south of the Berkhivka Reservoir and near Bohdanivka, northwest of Bakhmut. Despite these claims, ISW has not verified visual confirmation of the capture of Khromove and advances in forest areas north and northwest of the settlement, as reported by some Russian milbloggers.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling attacks in multiple areas, including Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka. Footage posted by a Russian milblogger on 29 November purportedly showed elements of the Russian 98th VDV Division operating near Bakhmut.

Contrary to Russian advancements, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that while Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on 30 November, they did not achieve territorial gains. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian attacks near the Berkhivka Reservoir and Klishchiivka were unsuccessful.

According to Ukraine’s General Staff, the Ukrainian military responded to Russian offensives near Synkivka, approximately 9 kilometers northeast of Kupiansk, Petropavlivka, 7 kilometers east of Kupiansk, and Stelmakhivka, 18 kilometers northwest of Svatove. Despite these engagements, Russian forces have not substantiated gains in these areas.

On the other side, Russian military bloggers have made claims contradicting these reports. They assert that Russian troops have pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified positions near Lyman Pershyi, which is situated 11 kilometers northeast of Kupiansk. Additionally, these sources claim that Russian forces have entered the outskirts of Synkivka and penetrated Ukrainian defenses along the Tymkivka-Ivanivka-Kyslivka line, a stretch roughly 20 to 23 kilometers southeast of Kupiansk.

However, ISW noted that there has been no visual confirmation of these claimed Russian advancements.

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