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ISW: Ukraine continues offensive ops near Donetsk’s Bakhmut and in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Ukrainian forces, based on an ISW daily report, continue their advance south of Bakhmut and other regions, while Russia maintains offensive operations on several lines.
ISW: Ukraine continues offensive ops near Donetsk’s Bakhmut and in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 15 October and slightly advanced south of Bakhmut, the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports

ISW notes that geolocated footage published on 15 October shows that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced towards the railway line north of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), and Russian sources reported continued Ukrainian ground attacks south of Bakhmut on the Klishchiivka-Kurdyumivka-Andriivka line (7-13km southwest of Bakhmut).

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces took advantage of recent Russian counterattacks in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast to gradually advance near Kopani (5km northwest of Robotyne), east of Nesteryanka (10km northwest of Robotyne), and near Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).

Ukrainian officials have not yet commented on any recent Ukrainian advances along the Robotyne-Novoprokopivka-Verbove line (20km southwest to 18km southeast of Orikhiv), however. Russian sources reported continued Ukrainian attacks on the Robotyne-Novoprokopivka-Verbove line on October 15.

At the same time, Russia continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on October 15 and advanced in some areas. 

Other takeaways from the ISW daily report:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
  • The Russian information space writ large is also metering its initial optimism about the prospects of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on October 15 but have yet to make further gains amid a likely decreasing tempo of Russian operations in the area.
  • Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations at this decreased tempo in the near term, however, and will remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area despite being unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encircle Avdiivka at this time.

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