In his interview with The Economist, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, says Ukraine has comprehensive intelligence information regarding the political realities in the West. The intelligence indicates that military aid to Kyiv will continue.
“It is still absolutely undecided how long the West will be able to maintain a sufficient supply of resources to us. Warehouses in Western countries are not completely empty. No matter what anyone says. We can see this very clearly as an intelligence agency,” stated Budanov.
Regarding Russia, Moscow’s only clear advantage over Ukraine is its headcount. Although abundant, the quality of Russian human resources is low, as observed by the Ukrainian official. He also predicted that Russia’s economy will only hold until 2025, with the flow of weapons diminishing by 2026 or possibly earlier. Putin’s discussions with Kim Jong Un are an unmistakable sign of his difficulties.
“If everything is fine and Russia has enough resources, why are they looking for them all over the world? The answer is obvious. There is nothing to extract any more,” pointed out Budanov.
Concerning the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the official stated that Kyiv still has time. There is over a month before the rainy season begins. The Ukrainian military has breached the Russian defensive line in the southern axis of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, potentially severing land connections between Russia and Crimea before winter arrives.
The spy chief also admitted that Ukraine is conducting a new drone campaign against Russia. He explained that it has three primary military objectives: to deplete Russia’s air-defense systems, disrupt military logistics, and damage military production facilities. However, a secondary goal is to disrupt the routine lives of Russians and push them out of their comfort zone. Budanov emphasized that Ukraine’s military adheres to the rules of war, with “zero” civilian casualties in Russia, indicating a deliberate decision by Ukraine.
“No one believes the UK or The US were the aggressors in WWII, although they also bombed the territory of Germany,” noted Budanov.
The Ukrainian official is confident that Russia will never voluntarily give up because war has been a constant in Moscow’s history. Peace negotiations cannot occur without Ukraine’s military establishing its own facts on the ground.
“We understand we will not end the war with a victory parade in Moscow. But neither should Moscow ever hope to hold one in Kyiv,” concluded Budanov.
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